“2. There have been a very large number of appeals relating to ethnic Serbs and many have been adjourned by the tribunal pending the outcome of these appeals, which have been described as test cases... Furthermore, it is to be noted that a large number of appeals have been allowed by adjudicators during the course of last year (some as a result of concessions by the Secretary of State) and we have been provided with a list of some 264 such appeals. Equally, the tribunal has had a number of such appeals before it. While the results have varied, the approach has been consistent, but the tribunal has had to rely on whatever material has been put before it. This has meant that there has been a degree of apparent inconsistency and so it was thought desirable that there should be an authoritative decision as to what the current situation is to enable consistent results to be achieved because this tribunal has been able to consider all relevant evidence. 3. … [T]hese cases are to be regarded as definitive unless there is a material change in the situation in Croatia. Since, as will become apparent, we are persuaded that none of the eight individuals concerned here have established a well-founded fear of persecution, such a change will only be for the worse if most applications involving ethnic Serbs are not to fail.”
“18. We must now consider the evidence before us of the situation facing such as these appellants if returned to Croatia. In this as in all asylum cases the tribunal has available a number of Country reports. There are the usual annual reports from the US State Department. There are reports from Amnesty International, from the UNHCR, from Human Rights Watch and from the Home Office (CIPU). There is a substantial report from the ECRE Focus Group on South-East Europe based on research carried out between November 2000 and January 2001 which is concerned specifically with the return of refugees. This points out some problems and makes recommendations for improvements. And there are regular reports issued weekly and consolidated regularly from the Organisation of Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). There are in the bundles before us many other reports from various organisations, letters to and from the British Embassy and newspaper cuttings all of which helps us to form a reliable picture of what is happening and is likely to happen. Since this is intended to enable the tribunal to form a definitive view as at the date of the hearing (updated by further material provided to us in written submissions at the beginning of April which does not in fact add significantly to what was before us at the hearing) of the situation in Croatia, the material has been somewhat more extensive than that which is usually deployed in similar cases. But it involves the same sort of material. 19. In all cases, we have to distil the facts from the various reports and documents. Bodies responsible for producing reports may have their own agenda and sources are not always reliable: People will sometimes believe what they want to believe and, aware of that, those with axes to grind may feed willing recipients. Many reports do their best to be objective. Often and inevitably they will recount what is said to have happened to individuals. They will select the incidents they wish to highlight. Such incidents may be wholly accurately reported, but not always. This means that there will almost always be differences of emphasis in various reports and sometimes contradictions. It is always helpful to know what sources have been used, but that may be impossible since, for obvious reasons, sources are frequently anxious not to be identified. We are well aware of criticisms that can be and have been levelled at some reports and are able to evaluate all the material which is put before us in this way. 20. In addition, we have had the advantage of hearing from two acknowledged experts in relation to Croatia. Dr Gow is a reader in War Studies at King’s College, London. He has visited countries which formed Yugoslavia on average two or three times a year and has worked as an expert advisor and witness for the Office of the Prosecutor at the UN International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia at The Hague. Judge Karphammer was a judge in Sweden and has since 1985 been senior legal advisor in the Eltsberg County Council in Sweden. More importantly for our purposes, between 1997 and June 1999 he was head of the legal unit of the OSCE in Eastern Slavonia and is now an international judge in UNMIK in Kosovo. He has close personal ties in Croatia and keeps himself informed of the situation in that country, which he visits on a monthly basis. It was his report in October 1999 which led to acceptance by the Home Office that those Serbs who have served in the army against Croats should be regarded as at risk of persecution if returned. We have been assisted by evidence; each we entirely accept was doing his best to help us to understand the realities of the situation facing ethnic Serbs in Croatia.”
“Since the situation is somewhat fluid and improvements are undoubtedly occurring, it is necessary to look particularly at the most recent reports”
“28. The latest full report by the OSCE is dated14 March 2001 . It is intended to provide a review of progress since the previous full report in November 2000. It notes a number of positive developments, particularly in relation to the judiciary and the police. There have been ‘some promising steps’ taken to address property repossession and new instructions issued to facilitate assistance in reconstruction of damaged property. It is noted that, although there have been a significant number of returnees, many do not remain. The approach to war crimes has improved; statements have been made recognising the need to establish individual responsibility. There is in train a review of prosecutions for war crimes and the police have, in carrying it out, conducted themselves ‘professionally and promptly’. It states:- ‘The Mission expects that all cases will be dealt with expeditiously by the judiciary and based solely on individual responsibility’. The report deprecates the failure to make progress to remedy the effects of previous discriminatory legislation (now abolished) affecting property rights. Overall, it is relatively optimistic. 29. The report notes that the government has reaffirmed its commitment to a multi-ethnic police force throughout Croatia, and in Eastern Slavonia, as we shall see, it composition reflects the ethnic balance. Its performance is assessed as being good, with more members of minority communities expressing satisfaction. It states:- ‘In the Vukovar area, police commanders took a number of steps including meeting the parents and school administrators, to ease ethnic tensions in two schools. However, the classification of ethnically motivated incidents by the police as being only violations of public order was still noted throughout Croatia – OSCE police monitors maintained regular working meetings to retroactively monitor as well as to provide advice and assistance to local police officers’. With reference to the judiciary, the report notes:- ‘Amendments to the laws incorporated some recommendations of the Council of Europe experts. For example, the amendments provided for more transparency and for an increased role of professional bodies within the procedures for appointment, dismissal and discipline of judges. They also allow for a Constitutional Court review of disciplinary decisions on the request of the individuals concerned, providing grounds for an increased independence of the judiciary’. “30. Dr Gow and Judge Karphammer both take the view that the reports are too optimistic and that there remains a risk of persecution, largely because, whatever the government may say and do, the HDZ and those who support its aims are still in control at lower levels and their actions maintain the discrimination and enable harassment and violence to occur with impunity... Essentially, the burden of both witnesses’ evidence was that it was too early to say that the reforms had borne fruit and the risk of persecution remained. The state was certainly unable to provide the necessary protection.”
“It is not the Appellants’ case that the Special Rapporteur was reporting on new events that had taken place since the oral hearing before the IAT. The importance of the material was that it was the latest objective opinion of an important international expert on the significance of changes since January 2000 and whether there was a continued risk of discriminatory ill treatment of Serbs by the local state in the light of the experience of the previous few months. It was the freshness of that opinion, and not the reporting of new undigested events that was significant.”
“Mr Justice Collins is almost certain that he did have these reports and is content that the Court of Appeal should approach the appeal on the basis that they were before the appeal at that stage.”
“… ethnic Serbs are very likely to suffer persecution and discrimination based on ethnicity. Our Embassy in Zagreb has confirmed that this is so, and it has also been confirmed in a more recent report by the Special UN Rapporteur. While not every case of an ethnic Serb will meet the Convention criteria, caseworkers should be aware that the likelihood is that many ethnic Serbs will be able to make a case for asylum under the Convention and each application should be considered very carefully before reaching a conclusion.”
“55. That passage draws attention to the course that appellate proceedings are likely to follow. The appellant is likely to focus on the circumstances prevailing at the time that the Secretary of State refused his application for asylum. If he demonstrates that at that time he was a refugee, the evidential burden will shift to the Secretary of State to demonstrate that circumstances have changed so that he has ceased to be a refugee.”
“An example of the well-founded suspicion that the Croatian authorities could not be relied upon concerns the designation of ‘war crimes suspects’. Although an Amnesty Law was introduced, the application of its provisions has not been reliable. Originally, the Croatian authorities issued a list of 811 individuals excluded from the Amnesty on the grounds that they were suspected of having committed war crimes and crimes against humanity. This list was later reduced to 150 and eventually to 25, the current figure for those officially excluded from the Amnesty and against whom indictments stand in Croatia.”
“16. In our view it is crucially important to consider the numerical element of the evidence before us. It is our experience that, in Croatian cases in particular, there is a tendency to represent worrying individual cases as though they were the norm. There is no internal reason to think that the statements made by the Special Rapporteur are merely intended as examples… 17. The number of arrests of Serbs for war crimes is said to be ‘large’… and indeed it is unacceptably large if it is in truth based primarily on ethnicity. It is not, however, very large in comparison with the numbers said to figure on lists, in particular the lists said to be available on the internet. Twenty-eight arrests in the period covered by the supplementary report might indicate an average of about 120 per year. Some of the individuals arrested will no doubt be released, as were five of those detained at Baranja… Some of those arrested are presumably genuinely thought to have some guilt for atrocities that undoubtedly took place. The number of arbitrary arrests resulting in undue detention or an unfair trial or an improper conviction cannot, in absolute terms, be large. The number of actual convictions is tiny. 18. Looking at this evidence as a whole as we do, although we share the concerns about individual cases, we see no reason to depart from the general assessment made by the Tribunal in paragraphs 34 – 36 of S . Our view is that the evidence now produced (if it be the case that the Tribunal did not consider it) supports the conclusion reached there. The risk of persecution as a result of these arrests is so small that it can in an ordinary case be disregarded.”
“Turning to the question of discrimination in employment, it may well be that the appellant has been discriminated against in the past but again, for the reasons which are set out in the S determination and, whilst accepting that the appellant may well have been discriminated against in her employment prior to leaving Croatia, we do not consider, for the reasons which are set out in the S determination, that there is a reasonable likelihood of such discrimination being sustained were the appellant to return now.”
“There can be no doubt that, despite the improvements, grave difficulties remain for Serbs. There is general discrimination which means that, in a country which has the most serious economic difficulties and high levels of unemployment, Serbs find themselves more likely to be out of work and deprived of access to any state assistance. Homelessness remains a major problem…”