“Where a person has suffered a loss, in consequence of dismissal, a Tribunal has to determine the extent of that loss. That involves comparing what would have occurred had there been no dismissal when the dismissal took place with what did in fact occur. The first question, what would have occurred, depends on a very great number of factors. They may include factors such as the Tribunal being aware of the illness of the Claimant which would have put him off work. They include the possibility that he would have chosen to leave that employment for any one of a variety of reasons. They include the possibility that the job might no longer have existed, again for a number of reasons. They also, and obviously, include the possibility, where the employer has taken steps to, and has, dismissed the employee for reasons which in substance are good but procedurally are bad, whether if the procedure had been fair there would have been a dismissal. This involves looking at the chance that would have occurred. Thus the chance of a fair dismissal, which is the subject matter of Polkey , is one of a number of factors which are likely to limit the extent of any compensatory award.”
“A ‘ Polkey deduction’ has these particular features. First, the assessment of it is predictive: could the employer fairly have dismissed and, if so, what were the chances that the employer would have done so? The chances may be at the extreme (certainty that it would have dismissed, or certainty it would not) though more usually will fall somewhere on a spectrum between these two extremes. This is to recognise the uncertainties. A Tribunal is not called upon to decide the question on balance. It is not answering the question what it would have done if it were the employer: it is assessing the chances of what another person (the actual employer) would have done. ... the Tribunal has to consider not a hypothetical fair employer, but has to assess the actions of the employer who is before the Tribunal, on the assumption that the employer would this time have acted fairly though it did not do so beforehand.”
“We agree with Mr Woodhouse [he being Counsel for the Respondent] that, in that sentence, the Tribunal, expressing their conclusions as based on the circumstances they had described, were using Polkey language i.e. they were setting out that they had approached the Polkey question by considering what was the chance that Mr Lewis would have been retained absent unfairness. The earlier passage on which Ms Stone founded her argument is not, in our judgment, inconsistent with that entirely correct approach. If the Tribunal had not considered the effect of Polkey by considering and determining on the evidence the appropriate percentage chance that Mr Lewis would have been retained, there is no reason for their expressing themselves as they did in terms of a 100% chance.”