“Based on the evidence before us, if the claimant had been selected and elected in the 2004 elections, the Tribunal considers that there would have been a 100% chance of the claimant being selected in 2008, but there is no evidence to suggest that the claimant would have been elected in 2008 or any period thereafter. Further, and in any event, the chain of causation would be broken in accordance with the principles set out in paragraph 2.2 of these reasons.”