“ there must have been a mistake as to an existing fact, including a mistake as to the availability of evidence on a particular matter; the fact or evidence must have been "established", in the sense that it was uncontentious and objectively verifiable; the appellant (or his advisors) must not have been responsible for the mistake; and the mistake must have played a material (though not necessarily decisive) part in the tribunal's reasoning.”
‘Your offender manager and offender supervisor do not support release. They both believe that the targets set for completion of further risk reduction work during temporary releases and the need for a long-term resettlement plan are necessary along with the need for you to be tested on how you respond to real-world situations and stimuli within the controls of temporary release. Although there would be strong external controls provided by a wide range of licence conditions, SOPO conditions, and a restraining order in respect of your ex-partner, there could be no confidence in how you may react and whether had sufficient internal controls to avoid future risky behaviour. Furthermore, your stance of denial in relation to your index offences would make it very difficult to be assured that warning signs would be obvious of any increase in your risk should you decide to sexually re-offend against children. Even with additional external controls in place such as GPS monitoring and Polygraph testing, without the re-assurance provided by your further engagement in risk reduction work and an assessment of the effects of that intervention, the panel found it very difficult to be confident that your high risks of further offending would be safely manageable in the medium to longer term of your indefinite period of supervision. Your risk management plans include initial release to [Designated Accommodation] where a bed would be available within around 16 weeks from the decision date for a 12 week placement. Your case has been accepted by probation and you would be supervised on release or on Release On Temporary Licence from prison by that service. You are screened into the Offender Personality Disorder pathway for additional support although a current formulation has not yet been provided. Your longer term plans are uncertain as you would like to live in but that is not currently realistic. Further work is still needed to give you a long term robust resettlement plan although it is acknowledged that you have the strong support of your own family network to help you when in the community. Many restrictive, but proportionate and necessary licence conditions are proposed, which include no contact with your victims and their family and a wide range of external controls that would normally applied to child sex offenders and which also mirror aspects of your Sexual Offences Prevention Order and indefinite restraining.’