“the balance of probability standard means that a court is satisfied an event occurred if the court considers on the evidence the occurrence of the event was more likely than not. When assessing probabilities the court will have in mind as a factor …..that the more serious the allegation the less likely it is that the event occurred and hence the stronger should be the evidence before the court concludes that the allegation is established on the balance of probability”
“as a general rule no doubt criminal conduct may be less probable than non criminal…….since it is necessary to establish there has been criminal conduct in the obtaining of property, the court should look for cogent evidence before deciding the balance of probabilities has been made out.”
“44. This leaves ……..the issue relating to the databases. We accept entirely the evidence of Professor Laycock that these could not properly provide any statistical basis for a conclusion as to the provenance of the suspect notes. But as he himself accepted in cross examination, the question of the validity of a database depends upon the purpose which is to be served. In the present case the comparison made between the notes in the appellants’ possession and the databases was merely part of the prosecution case showing a connection between the appellants and the cocaine. That was in the context of other evidence which pointed in the absence of any innocent explanation to the fact that the appellants were involved in illicit activity which resulted in substantial financial gain. (my emphasis) We do not consider a jury even confronted with the evidence of Professor Laycock could come to any other conclusion but that the levels of contamination here were significant.”
“ 45.It is true that we have now had the benefit of evidence from statisticians but that evidence does not in our view detract from the common sense views expressed in those paragraphs and in particular paragraph 28.They echo the evidence given to us by Professor Monaghan and Dr. Brereton………..”