“19. Procedure after completion of examination (1) After completion of the examination, the Examining authority must make a written report to the Secretary of State. (2) The report must include the Examining authority’s - (a) findings and conclusions in respect of the application; and (b) any recommendation as to the decision to be made on the application. (3) If after the completion of the Examining authority's examination, the Secretary of State - (a) differs from the Examining authority on any matter of fact mentioned in, or appearing to the Secretary of State to be material to, a conclusion reached by the Examining authority; or (b) takes into consideration any new evidence or new matter of fact, and is for that reason disposed to disagree with a recommendation made by the Examining authority, the Secretary of State shall not come to a decision which is at variance with that recommendation without – (i) notifying all interested parties of the Secretary of State's disagreement and the reasons for it; and (ii) giving them an opportunity of making representations in writing to the Secretary of State in respect of any new evidence or new matter of fact.” (a) findings and conclusions in respect of the application; and (b) any recommendation as to the decision to be made on the application. (a) differs from the Examining authority on any matter of fact mentioned in, or appearing to the Secretary of State to be material to, a conclusion reached by the Examining authority; or (b) takes into consideration any new evidence or new matter of fact, and is for that reason disposed to disagree with a recommendation made by the Examining authority, the Secretary of State shall not come to a decision which is at variance with that recommendation without – (i) notifying all interested parties of the Secretary of State's disagreement and the reasons for it; and (ii) giving them an opportunity of making representations in writing to the Secretary of State in respect of any new evidence or new matter of fact.”
“20. Procedure following quashing of decision (2) Where a decision of the Secretary of State in respect of an application is quashed in proceedings before any court, the Secretary of State – (a) shall send to all interested parties a written statement of the matters with respect to which further representations in writing are invited for the purposes of the Secretary of State's further consideration of the application; (b) shall give all interested parties the opportunity of making representations in writing to the Secretary of State in respect of those matters.”
“3.4.2 Transcripts have not been made available as part of this report due the confidentiality of the interviews and the commercial sensitivity of the data collected. Responses have been incorporated into the findings in Section 4.”
“7…..Derived from the contents of the interviews, Azimuth then arrived at recommendations, firstly, in relation to the opportunities for Manston Airport to attract aircraft movements including those arising from the lack of available slots … [at] other airports in the South East of England and the bumping of freight from passenger aircraft (so called "belly hold" carriage), security issues associated with outsized cargo and the speed of turnaround. They also recommended a number of markets which were identified through the research for which Manston Airport could be suitable. These included outsized freight, Formula 1 and luxury cars, live animals, perishable products, and time sensitive items, for instance for the aircraft industry and the oil and gas industry. 8. The recommendations contained in volume 2 of the report, following the qualitative analysis which Azimuth Associates considered the most reliable methodology, was then converted into a quantitative assessment of the volumes of freight and passenger traffic which could be expected for the first 20 years of operation at Manston Airport. Whilst it is not set out in detail within the report, in answers provided by the interested party to questions on need posed during the examination more detailed breakdowns were provided in respect of, for instance, particular market sectors and the assumptions which had been built into the forecast as to the number of aircraft movements and volumes of freight which were forecast to be moved from Manston Airport. The demand forecasts showed that the volume of freight movements in Manston Airport would increase over the course of time to a forecast of 17,000 freight movements in year 20. In addition, the forecasts evidenced around 1.4 million passengers using the airport by year 20 of its operation.”
“5.6.57 While potentially useful and interesting, the fact that the transcripts have not been made available as part of the Azimuth Report due to the confidentiality of the interviews and the commercial sensitivity of the data collected limits the weight that can be given to them. Many of the interviewees also appeared to be local businesses of limited size or pro- business organisations for Kent. … 5.6.59 Such as it is, and on the basis of the evidence provided, the ExA cannot conclude that that academic and industry experts have validated the approach of the Azimuth Report. While noting the statement that further evidence was commercially confidential, without access to such evidence the ExA is unable to take this into account.”
“5.7.13 The Applicant's Azimuth Report is a comprehensive document but the weight that the ExA can place on its forecasts is reduced by the lack of interview transcripts available, and of the size and sample frame of many of the interviewees, when considering the size of the forecasts that are generated and there is little evidence that academic and industry experts have validated the approach of the Azimuth Report. Furthermore, there is little evidence that capacity available elsewhere such as at EMA, or the impact of the proposed Northwest Runway at Heathrow have been taken into account in the production of the forecasts. 5.7.14 The Northpoint Report provides a valuable alternative source to 'back up' the Azimuth Report. However, the limitations identified within its model, particularly those considering the scope for migrating between types of carrier and the impact of price (particularly when considering differences between bellyhold and pure freight, and trucking) appear to the ExA to be substantial limitations in the case of the Proposed Development and a more detailed model assessing such variables was not available to the ExA. ….. 5.7.23 The ExA is not convinced that there is a substantial gap between capacity and demand for general air freight within the South East at present. Capacity is available or could be available at other airports within the South East or at other airports within reach of the South East should the demand exist, and such capacity could largely be achieved relatively simply through permitted development rights or existing facilities. 5.7.24 The ExA is of the opinion that general air freight would continue to be well served in the UK with spare capacity at Stansted in the short term (to 2030) and the proposed Northwest Runway at Heathrow in the longer term, and that new integrators are more likely to wish to be sited in a more central location. If constructed and operated then the Proposed Development could carry out a role within the market focused on perishables and oversized niche freight as previously but it seems unlikely that tonnage achieved will be significantly more than previously handled. Without the proposed Northwest Runway at Heathrow more demand may be available but the ExA's conclusions relating to new integrators, that is that they would be more likely to base themselves in a more central location to their other logistical operations, remain valid.”
“Given all the above evidence, the ExA concludes that the levels of freight that the Proposed Development could expect to handle are modest and could be catered for at existing airports (Heathrow, Stansted, EMA, and others if the demand existed). The ExA considers that Manston appears to offer no obvious advantages to outweigh the strong competition that such airports offer. The ExA therefore concludes that the Applicant has failed to demonstrate sufficient need for the Proposed Development, additional to (or different from) the need which is met by the provision of existing airports.”
“11.3. RECOMMENDATION 11.3.1 For all of the above reasons and in the light of its findings and conclusions on important and relevant matters set out in this report, the ExA, under the procedures set down in the PA2008, recommended that the SoS should not grant development consent.”
“the extent to which current national or local policies (including any changes since9 July 2020 such as, but not limited to, the re-instatement of the ANPS) inform the level of need for the services that the Development would provide and the benefits that would be achieved from the Development; whether the quantitative need for the Development has been affected by any changes since9 July 2019 , and if so, a description of any such changes and the impacts on the level of need from those changes (such as, but not limited to, changes in demand for air freight, changes of capacity at other airports, locational requirements for air freight and the effects of Brexit and/or Covid); the extent to which the Secretary of State should, in his re-determination of the application, have regard to the sixth carbon budget (covering the years between 2033 – 2037) which will include emissions from international aviation; and any other matters arising since9 July 2019 which Interested Parties consider are material for the Secretary of State to take into account in his re-determination of the application.”
“Capacity: the ExA and IAA took into account capacity at other airports that could be made available through in future [sic]. Such capacity is not material to this decision as there is no certainty such capacity will come forward in future.”
“The Secretary of State’s Conclusion on Demand & Forecast Assessments 89. The Secretary of State accepts that there will always be a level of uncertainty in any demand forecast and agrees with the author of the Azimuth Report that assessing demand for freight is no easy matter. The Secretary of State notes that the approach taken by the Applicant relies on an in-depth understanding of the changes that are taking place within the sector in a way that does not miss any currently unmet demand. The Examining Authority concluded that the Applicant's forecasts seem ambitious in light of the historical performance of the airport. The Secretary of State considers that, given the circumstances noted in paragraphs 81 - 82 above, the qualitative approach taken in the Azimuth Report is preferable to the other forecasts considered by the Examining Authority. Given the dynamic changes that are currently taking place in the aviation sector as a result of the challenges and opportunities from the COVID-19 pandemic, the opportunities from the UK's emergence as a sovereign trading nation and the age of the available data allied with historic under investment, the Secretary of State, contrary to the Examining Authority and the Independent Assessor, places little weight on forecasts that rely on historic data and performance to determine what share of the market the Development might capture. 90. The Secretary of State notes that while the Examining Authority found the Applicant's Azimuth Report potentially useful and interesting, it gave it limited weight because the transcripts of interviews and other commercially sensitive or confidential information had not been made available. The Secretary of State notes that the Independent Assessor observed the reduced weight that the Examining Authority gave the Azimuth Report and made no further comment. While the Secretary of State agrees with the Examining Authority that the Azimuth Report is a comprehensive document, he disagrees with the Examining Authority that the lack of access to the information withheld by the Applicant reduces the weight that can be placed on it. The Secretary of State is of the view that withholding commercially and other sensitive information from the planning process is justified. The Secretary of State notes that Table 3 in Volume II of the Azimuth Report provides a list of the organisations and key market players it interviewed. A forecast of demand is included in Table 1 in Volume III of the Azimuth Report and a more detailed forecast was included in Appendix 3.3 of the Applicant's Environmental Statement. The Application was publicised and examined in the normal way and all Application documents and representations submitted during the examination were made publicly available such that there was opportunity for anyone not notified to also submit comments. The Secretary of State did not receive any representations that persuaded him that the conclusions of the Azimuth Report are incorrect. 91. The Secretary of State is aware that his Department's UK Aviation Forecasts 2017 does not model air freight in detail and therefore labelled it as an assumption. However, he is satisfied that the Azimuth Report, which is supported by the Northpoint Report and provides a top-down view of the air freight market and employs a ‘scenario-based’ analysis, demonstrates that there is demand for the air freight capacity that the Development seeks to provide. The Secretary of State has therefore afforded the Azimuth Report substantial weight in the planning balance. 92. The Secretary of State agrees that industry and other news reports submitted during the re-determination process support the view that e-commerce and air freight demand is increasing, and that these news reports are consistent and support some of the assumptions made in the Azimuth Report. However, the Secretary of State is only able to attach little weight to such reports because they have not been assessed for whether they represent a balanced view of material that is in the wider press. 93. The Secretary of State accepts that there is uncertainty in how the aviation sector may look post-Brexit or post-Covid, and agrees with the Independent Assessor's that even the most up-to-date data cannot be said to fully reflect how the sector may look going forward. However, it is because of this uncertainty that the Secretary of State places significant weight on the reopening and development of the site for aviation purposes, rather than losing the site and existing aviation infrastructure to other redevelopment. 94. Finally, the Secretary of State places substantial weight on the fact that there is a private investor who has concluded that the traffic forecasted at the Development could be captured at a price that would make the Development viable, and is willing to invest in redeveloping the site on that basis.”
“For all the reasons given in this letter, the Secretary of State is satisfied that there is a clear justification for authorising the Development. He has therefore decided to grant the Manston Airport Development Consent Order Application….”
“64. Having considered the rival submissions which have been made in relation to this aspect of the claimant's case I am unable to accept that there was any breach of the requirements of fairness in the context of this particular case by reason of the failure to provide the interview transcripts or other material underpinning the Azimuth Report. There was in my judgment nothing to prevent the interested party placing reliance on the Azimuth report without the disclosure of the information upon which it was based, and which was commercially confidential. 65. The Azimuth report was capable of amounting to a material consideration in the decision-making process, particularly given that it was pertinent to an important issue in the case namely the question of demand and need. There is nothing to preclude expert evidence being provided in a decision-making process of this kind in which some of the underlying data or evidence is not disclosed on the grounds that it is commercially confidential and cannot be put into the public domain. There are no provisions which could require the defendant to insist upon production of that underlying material; by the same token it is not contended by the claimant that in the absence of that material the Azimuth report should be treated as irrelevant. The essential issue which arises when an expert report of this kind is submitted, and underlying evidence is withheld on the basis of confidentiality, is the question of the weight which can be attached to such a report in the absence of the material which underpins some of the judgments and conclusions which have been reached. It was the question of the weight which could be given to the report in these circumstances upon which the ExA focused. In his turn, the defendant also focused upon what weight could be attached to the Azimuth report in the absence of the underlying evidence. The defendant engaged with the impact of the material which had been omitted and reached the conclusion that it did not in his judgment affect the weight which he proposed to afford the report. The defendant provided reasons for that conclusion. 66. Ultimately, it was for the defendant to conclude what weight could be attached to the Azimuth report and in the light of the observations which he reached it is clear he concluded that significant weight could be attached to the Azimuth report's analysis. He concluded that the withholding of the commercially sensitive material from the planning process had been justified and that details of those organisations and market players who had been interviewed had been identified. The Azimuth report had been submitted and available for scrutiny along with the other material comprised in the application. In the circumstances fairness did not require additional disclosure of the kind suggested by the claimant to have been required. I am not satisfied, therefore, that fairness required the provision of this material.”
“71. Dealing firstly with the contentions in relation to the 2010 rules, I accept the submissions made by the defendant and the interested party that a distinction needs to be drawn between rule 19 and rule 20, in particular in the light of the headings of the two rules in question. On the basis of the headings and the provisions of the rules it is clear that rule 19 applies after completion of the examination and the submission of the ExA's report to the defendant prior to decision making. By contrast rule 20 is specific to addressing the procedure following the quashing of a decision. It is self-evidently the case that in present circumstances the defendant was addressing a redetermination procedure following his decision having been quashed. 72. The rules address two quite separate processes which arise in two quite separate factual contexts. In the situation governed by rule 19 the parties would be unaware of the ExA report's contents and recommendations, and will have only had an opportunity to comment upon the issues and matters arising within the context of the exchange of submissions and materials orchestrated by the examination process. That will not have featured the views of the defendant or, alternatively, new evidence or facts which were not part of the examination process, but which have the potential to lead the defendant to a disagreement with the ExA's recommendation. In those circumstances it is clear why rule 19 would provide the opportunity for those matters to be put in the public domain and for the parties to have a chance to comment upon them. By contrast the situation addressed by rule 20 is one in which the ExA's report will be in the public domain, and the process which is envisaged under rule 20(2) is one which is focused on particular issues about which the defendant requires further information. Thus, in my judgment rule 19 is not of application at the stage of proceedings after an initial decision has been the subject of a quashing order. The reference in paragraph 265 of the decision to rule 19 is an error, but not one which in my judgment was material so as to justify the grant of relief to the claimant.”
“73. Even were I wrong in relation to that conclusion, I am nonetheless satisfied that the submissions made by the defendant and the interested party on the application of rule 19(3) are correct. Even were one to construe rule 19 as applying to this stage of the process, as it was after the completion of the ExA's examination, what is clear on the face of the defendant's conclusions is that it is the weight which he attached to the Azimuth report which has led to him rejecting the ExA's recommendation. Whilst reference is made in the decision to the IBA report, when the defendant's conclusions are scrutinised it is clear that the reason he was disposed to disagree with the ExA's recommendation was not any new evidence or new facts but rather his appraisal of the weight to be attached to the Azimuth report.”
“91. In my judgment, when the briefing document and the draft letter are read as whole it is clear that the recommendation of the defendant's officials, which he adopted, was that the potential for airport capacity expansion elsewhere was something to which very little weight could be attached, and was not obviously material to the decision for the reasons relating to the uncertainties and contingencies upon which any expansion depended. It follows that I am not satisfied that the claimant has established that the defendant was advised he could not take additional airport capacity into account and it was irrelevant. Rather the briefing and draft decision presented to him, and which he accepted, set out that very little weight could be attached to capacity through applications which had yet to be brought forward on the basis that there was no certainty that any of them would materialise. That was a conclusion which was open to the defendant on the basis that it acknowledged and considered the question of capacity at other airports, but concluded for the reasons that the defendant gave that very little weight could be attached to it. In those circumstances I am unable to accept that there was any illegality in the approach presented to the defendant and adopted by him in the ministerial briefing and the accompanying draft decision letter.”
“45. Mr Kimblin [counsel for the appellant] pins his colours firmly to a breach of Rule 17(5) of the 2000 Procedure Rules, although on my understanding of his argument he discerned little if any material difference between the regulatory test and the common law. I agree. In my judgment, both sub-paragraphs (a) and (b) are applicable, although the principal focus should be on (b). The Secretary of State has differed from the Inspector on a matter of fact (a). The reason why he has done so is because he has taken into account new evidence (b). Mr Buley submitted that it has not been established – the burden being on the Claimant – that it was "for that reason [that the Secretary of State was] disposed to disagree with a recommendation made by the Inspector", but in my judgment he has misconstrued this clause. Rule 17(5) is not activated if the Secretary of State discovers new evidence but decides at that juncture not to take it into consideration (see the opening words of (b)), but in the evidence that he does, or is minded to, he must at that stage seek further representations from the parties if he considers that the new evidence is likely to form the basis, in whole or in part, for the ultimate recommendation reached. The Secretary of State does not have to be satisfied that the new evidence would constitute the sole reason for a different recommendation; it merely has to form part of the decision-making process. Furthermore, the Rule says "disposed to disagree" which to my mind imports a lower threshold. As I have said, Rule 17(5) would not apply if the Secretary of State has reached the firm and fixed conclusion that the new evidence will not be taken into account or is clearly immaterial; otherwise, however, it does apply.”