“Overall, this evidence suggests that an effect of the reforms has been to facilitate entry in areas already well served by pharmacies.”
“… the viability of each individual pharmacy is unclear, and the intent is to focus on those that are most needy and whose closure would impact most on local populations. However it is difficult to assess viability and the end measure is likely to have an inevitable degree of crudeness, targeting those who would be most missed. MD queried if modelling has suggested 3,000 likely closures, or if the number DH would wish to save was c. 1,500. DP noted the complexity in that one closure can increase the viability of another (sic) pharmacies. This is why estimating of closures has been avoided. …”
“37. Overall, pharmacies would see a cut of 6.1% on average in remuneration in 2016/17 (equivalent to 12.1% in the second half of 2016/17) and 7.4% in 2017/18. It is difficult to predict the impact of these proposals on the viability of pharmacies and, therefore, which pharmacies might close as a result of the cut in funding. For pharmacies that do not qualify for the Pharmacy Access Scheme (PhAS), this reduction is equivalent to 6.6% on average in remuneration in 2016/17 (equivalent to 13.3% in the second half of 16/17) and 8.3% in 2017/18. These numbers assume that all pharmacies receive the quality payment. However, our analysis suggests pharmacies run a 15% operating margin, that is, the margin before tax and interest is charged. Thus with a 12% reduction in revenue on average, we can assume some pharmacies will be at risk of closure. Independent and chain pharmacies would be at high risk of closure, but even multiples may choose to close pharmacies that do not bring in significant footfall. … 41. The figures should therefore be treated as indicative only, and overall this analysis is testament to how difficult it is to predict how pharmacies might be affected as a result of these proposals.”
“30. … A closure figure of between 500 and 900 was said to result from the latest draft impact assessment. That assessment has not been disclosed.”
“54. It is difficult to predict precisely the impact of these proposals on the viability of community pharmacies and, therefore, which - if any - might close as a result of the cut in funding. Our indicative analysis suggests community pharmacies run a 15% operating margin, that is, the margin before tax and interest is charged. This analysis uses the limited data available. We have matched with our payments data with Companies House data for 80 chains and multiples. This data and analysis may not be representative of the full population of pharmacies. Nevertheless, a funding reduction of 12% in 16/17, could mean that some community pharmacies would be at risk of closure, without adapting their business. In a scenario where closures did occur, independent (typically micro business) and chain pharmacies could be at higher risk of closure, but even multiples may choose to close community pharmacies that do not bring in significant footfall. As stated above though, there is no reliable way of estimating closures, and the potential impacts in this IA are assessed on the basis that there is a scenario where no pharmacy closes. 55. Moreover, it is not clear, if the viability of an individual business is threatened, whether these businesses will close or simply be taken over by other owners on the basis that they can be run more efficiently and remain viable business propositions. For example, a current pharmacy may become unviable because it is unable to meet the quality criteria in order to benefit from payments from the Quality Scheme. Another owner may be able to run the business in such a way so as to benefit from those payments, and/or simply run the business more efficiently. 56. Finally, there is an important interdependency in that, if a pharmacy closes, it is likely that the prescriptions that were dispensed by that pharmacy would be redistributed to pharmacies located nearby. Therefore, pharmacy closures, if any were to occur and as is currently the case, would have an immediate positive impact on the viability of remaining pharmacies. 57. For these reasons, it is impossible to provide any robust estimate of the number of pharmacy closures that may result. However, hypothetical closure scenarios are examined in the sensitivities section below to illustrate the scale of the impact on patient travel times, were pharmacies to close.”
“163. When exercising his functions in relation to the NHS, the Secretary of State must have regard to the need to reduce inequalities between the people of England with respect to the benefits that they can obtain from the NHS. 164. It is important to emphasise that this duty is separate from the PSED [i.e. “the public sector equality duty” imposed upon public authorities bysection 149 of the Equality Act 2010 to “have due regard to the need to… eliminate discrimination” etc], and is about a need to reduce inequalities that may or may not be based on protected characteristics. Socio-economic impacts need therefore to be considered in terms of other socio-economic factors such as income, social deprivation and rural isolation. 165. Currently, there is ready access to pharmacies, with 89.2% of the population able to get to one within 20 minutes by walking (recognising that some people have mobility difficulties, which means that these statistics may not be directly relevant). Furthermore, it should be noted that access is greater in areas of highest deprivation. 166. That said, inevitably there are concerns, to which our mitigations respond, that if profitability of pharmacy contractors is affected, this will have a disproportionate detrimental impact on less affluent areas or on areas where there might inevitably be less choice because of demographic factors. The potential for impact on transient populations needs also to be considered. 167. A consequence of reduced funding of the order proposed would be the increased likelihood of pharmacies only being open their minimum hours or withdrawing from provision of NHS pharmaceutical services altogether. The surplus capacity of pharmacies in some areas and possibility of closures, together with a more general survey of impacts, are discussed above. 168. Overall the PhAS is expected to mitigate the impact of any potential pharmacy closures in isolated areas and areas where pharmacy provision is sparse relative to other areas. We do not consider that the proposals will have any significant impact on health inequalities and we expect that in fact the PhAS and other proposals (such as the PhIF) will result in pharmacy funding being better focused on areas where there is most need for it. To ensure that no area is adversely affected, a review of eligibility will be granted for pharmacies that may have narrowly missed out on the scheme through the distance criteria, but are in areas of high deprivation and are crucial to patent access. Impact on deprived areas 169. The pharmacies included in the PhAS include those pharmacies that are relatively isolated, and serve populations that are both in areas with relatively sparse provision of pharmacies, and higher needs levels. We have ensured this by cross checking eligible pharmacies against our composite index, which is a measure of the pharmacies that are most important for maintaining patient access. 170. To consider this further, we looked at some of the examples of communities highlighted in “Dispensing Health Equality”
“I do not know. It is possible that none will close. I believe that 3,000 will close. However, I would say this. The average operating margin that the pharmacy makes on the numbers that I quoted earlier is 15%. That is after salaries and rent. The cuts that we are making, or the efficiencies that we are asking for, are significantly lower than that. Of course there is no such thing as an average pharmacy, which is why I cannot guarantee that there will be no changes. What I can say is that, if there are mergers and if there is some consolidation, that demand does not go away – it goes to the other pharmacies in the cluster. To say that those pharmacies will be put under more pressure is plain wrong.”
“One of the questions you raised was in respect to the 15% operating margin referenced in the Oral Statement to Parliament. I undertook to provide further information. The next day, I emailed and directed you to paragraph 54 of the Impact Assessment, which describes how the 15% operating margin was derived. On 24th October you requested a list of the companies and the date of the accounts, so that the PSNC could replicate and check the figure. In this period the Department has needed to prioritise the actions to implement the reforms from1st December 2016 . It has also needed to handle parliamentary business, such as the Opposition Debate on Wednesday, as I indicated in my email. At no point has the Department refused to provide the information on the 15% operating margin. To seek to assess the operating margin of community pharmacies the Department accessed information available publicly, namely data held by Companies House. Rather than merely providing you the list of companies and year of their accounts, I enclose more detailed information provided by our economists on how the indicative figure of 15% operating margin was derived, to assist the PSNC in understanding the Department’s analysis. In providing this information, it is important I correct a claim made in your letter. While this indicative analysis of the operating margin was contained within the Impact Assessment and formed part of the data which informed Ministers’ decision, it would not be right to say it was fundamental to Ministers’ decision as you suggest. Ministers took into account a range of factors.”
“186. In determining whether a decision maker has acted irrationally the intensity of the scrutiny to be applied by a Court is context sensitive. Case law tends to suggest that the following considerations will tend to broaden the scope of the margin of appreciation: where the decision maker is taking a decision in the health field with the objective of improving patient care; where the decision adopted is prospective and precautionary (ie based upon a prediction of future benefit and where there is perceived to be a benefit in acting sooner rather than later notwithstanding uncertainties); where the decision maker has indicated a willingness and intention to review the policy as it unfolds to ensure that it is in fact working adequately and to review and modify it to address emerging problems. ”
“43. The economic impact was obviously of considerable importance. But I have to ask myself whether the failure to obtain a satisfactory analysis of the economic effect did contravene the Tameside principle and whether the failure to disclose such analysis as had been carried out rendered the consultation unfair. It has been submitted that there was a full assessment made in 2011 and that a similar exercise should have been carried out. The defendant's case was that that previous assessment was in his view unsatisfactory and furthermore such an exercise would require time and money which would militate against the overall savings required. PSNC was informed that the Department would welcome any information on the likely effects on pharmacies. I accept Ms Foster's submission that if particular information is indeed needed to produce a proper result it is not, as a general rule, for the decision maker to put the burden on those affected or consultees to provide it. But circumstances may dictate otherwise. 44. The expertise of PSNC is a relevant factor. Furthermore, as the Department recognised, it was very difficult to obtain any sensible figures of likely closures. While I am surprised that the information was not disclosed, I do not think that such disclosure would have made any difference. PSNC was aware of the percentage involved in the cuts and, since no analysis beyond the 15% suggestion had been made, could have obtained information from in particular the small pharmacies. If it had known what the Department had done, it would have been in no better position. And, as I have said, I do not think that it was irrational of the Department to consider that there was no need to try to obtain any more reliable information, if that were indeed possible, since the cost of so doing outweighed any possible benefit. Furthermore, PSNC could as suggested without too much difficulty have obtained such information as it considered necessary. I appreciate the Department had power to require pharmacies to give relevant information, but again the cost and effort involved in such an exercise was reasonably considered to outweigh its benefit. 45. It follows that I do not find there to have been any breach of the Tameside principle.”
“29. While I have no doubt that a reduction in the number of pharmacies was regarded by the Department and ministers as desirable, the changes were not made with that intention. The changes were to save cost and to implement the required savings that were dictated by the government. It was submitted (albeit this was not a ground in respect of which permission had been granted) that the changes were made for the improper purpose of reducing the number of pharmacies. That such reductions were regarded as a desirable effect of the changes to remuneration seems to me to be clear, but that does not mean that that was the intention behind those changes. It is submitted that a decision maker must be deemed to intend the inevitable consequences of his action. But that does not mean that the action is for an improper purpose even if the changes have the effect of closing some pharmacies.”
“In my judgment CREEDNZ (viathe decision in Findlay) does not only support the proposition that where a statute conferring discretionary power provides no lexicon of the matters to be treated as relevant by the decision-maker, then it is for the decision-maker and not the court to conclude what is relevant, subject only to Wednesbury review. By extension it gives authority also for a different but closely related proposition, namely that it is for the decision-maker and not the court, subject again to Wednesbury review, to decide upon the manner and intensity of enquiry to be undertaken into any relevant factor accepted or demonstrated as such.”
“Councils cannot be expected to speculate on or to investigate or to explore such matters ad infinitum; nor can they be expected to apply, indeed they are to be discouraged from applying, the degree of forensic analysis for the purposes of… consideration of their duties under section 149 which a QC might deploy in court.”
“The courts must ensure that they do not micro-manage the exercise.”
“Socio-economic impacts need therefore to be considered in terms of other socio-economic factors such as income, social deprivation and rural isolation.”