“Our conclusion is that the deferment rate is constant beyond 20 years. Below 20 years we accept the view of Mr Dumas, Professor Lizieri and Mr Orr Ewing that the rate would need to have regard to the property cycle at the time of valuation. Beyond 75 years we see no reason on the evidence before us to conclude that the rate would be either higher or lower.”
“The application of the deferment rate of 5% for flats and 4.75% for houses that we have found to be generally applicable will need to be considered in relation to the facts of each individual case. Before applying a rate that is different from this, however, a valuer or an LVT should be satisfied that there are particular features that fall outside the matters that are reflected in the vacant possession value of the house or flat or in the deferment rate itself and can be shown to make a departure from the rate appropriate.”
“The Tribunal’s later comments on the significance of their guidance do not distinguish in terms between the PCL area and other parts of London or the country. However, there must in my view be an implicit distinction. The issues within the PCL were fully examined in a fully contested dispute between directly interested parties. The same cannot be said in respect of other areas. The judgment that the same deferment rate should apply outside the PCL area was made, and could only be made, on the evidence then available. That must leave the way open to the possibility of further evidence being called by other parties in other cases directly concerned with different areas. The deferment rate adopted by the Tribunal will no doubt be the starting point; and their conclusions on the methodology, including the limitations of market evidence, are likely to remain valid. However, it is possible to envisage other evidence being called, for example, on issues relevant to the risk premium for residential property in different areas. That will be a matter for those advising future parties, and for the tribunals, to consider as such issues arise.”
“76. It is, in our judgment, the combined effect of the other components, volatility and illiquidity, that must have the major impact on the risk premium. If the market was composed, or contained a substantial number, of people who intended to hold the reversion to term the fluctuations in the residential property prices and the illiquidity of the investment would have very little influence. The investor would simply lock away the investment, and the passage of time would iron out the fluctuations. The illiquidity would have no influence because the investment would not be sold. Mr Cullum’s assessment was based, it appears to us, on the assumption of a market very much of this sort, and he identified pension funds and the great estates as the likely purchasers. We do not, however, accept that in the market that we have to envisage there would be any significant number of investors who would be looking to hold these very long term assets throughout their lives. The attraction of the investment would be its relative security, the prospect of growth and the opportunity for both long-term retention and earlier sale. Tradeability would, we think, be important as one of its components, and it is this that would make the volatility of the housing market and the relative illiquidity of the investment significant factors in the mind of a purchaser.”
“Mr Bebbington contrasted the auction market and the results (prices) achieved with those by private treaty sales involving serious investors and specialist brokers or agents. He said that investors did not capitalise and defer future increases in ground rent and that length of lease was seen as relevant only if it was less than 80 years unexpired. He put in evidence a schedule of private treaty sales of reversions during 1996 in various categories, for example ground rent only receivable, insurance commission also receivable and where in addition the freeholder manages the 8 premises. This schedule of transactions negotiated by the Ground Rent Brokers, said to be the largest agent active in this specialised market, included both single reversions and ‘parcels’ or portfolios. Mr Bebbington stressed that these were sales between investors and that at the point of sale full relevant information was available as to the position between the vendor and the lessees of flats; this situation contrasted markedly with the circumstances prevailing at auction.”
“The evidence therefore supports and favours the approach of Mr Angel [Mr Bebbington’s expert] in annexure 2 save that, as Mr Bebbington said, the market pays no material regard to prospective, but somewhat distant, increases in ground rent. In the instant appeal their capitalisation and deferment produced only de minimis amounts.”
“Ground rent income 4 x£75 pa =£ 300 YP @ 14.28% 7£2,100 Reversion Flat 3 1 x£300 pa =£ 300 YP in perp. @ 14.28% 7 PV£1 in 56 years @ 14.28% 0.0006£ 1 Flats 1,2 & 4 Reversion to£230,000 PV£1 in 89 years @ 14.28% 0£ 0 Insurance Commission Premium£765.44 Commission at 20%£ 153.08 6 years purchase 6.0£ 918 £3,019 Freehold value = say£3,020 ”
“Sportelli however, was not concerned with a freehold reversion 180 years in the future and it does seem to the Tribunal that a reversion so far distant would persuade an investor that a slightly higher return was appropriate.”
“In Nell Gwynn House Mr Maunder Taylor’s arguments based on his analysis of auction sales met with a measure of success. That decision, by a particularly strongly constituted tribunal, is clearly one of very considerable importance. However, the actual finding by the Tribunal in that case is of little evidential value. Notwithstanding that Mr Maunder Taylor’s evidence found favour with the Tribunal in that case, having considered his report and listened with great care to his oral evidence both in examination in chief and cross examination, we do not reach the same conclusion on the facts. Whereas the Tribunal in Nell Gwynn House did not find Mr Maunder Taylor’s evidence overwhelming, following the very thorough and skilful cross examination by Mr Letman we have found it less than convincing. We have not had the opportunity to investigate what evidence the Tribunal had before it and how it had treated it. Moreover, as we have stated above, it is incumbent upon the expert to provide sufficient particulars to substantiate the reliability of the material upon which the opinion is based. In this instance, we were not persuaded as to the reliability of the material produced by Mr Maunder Taylor.”
“Q. If you are right that the deferment rate should be 7% instead of 5% for the shorter leases, does it follow that you would be asking for 9% for the longer leases? A. No sir. Q. I thought you said that there was a difference between the markets for shorter and longer reversions. A. There is a different type of market. There is a point at which the thoughts and bids of those two different types of purchasers would come together.”
“As far as concerns non-prime property, it is my opinion that the deferment rate should start to increase at 75 years unexpired, increase further at 80 years unexpired, and from 90 years unexpired upwards, reversionary value should be treated as nil.”
“It is my opinion that the auction price reflects the existence of theLeasehold Reform, Housing and Urban Development Act 1993 however, it is my opinion that the existence of the Act cannot possibly justify the difference between£95,000 in the with Act world and£248,500 in the no Act world.”
“All evidence has some value in my opinion; the quality of the evidence must first be looked at and the circumstances behind it, and then the weight that should be given to such evidence can be properly assessed. In my opinion little weight, if any, should be placed on the auction result for the purposes of the statutory valuation.”
“We must emphasise, however, that, as appears from such analysis, we are disappointed as to the quality and analysis of the evidence that has been put before us in the course of these appeals.”