“There is little before the panel to suggest that [the Applicant] will not try and do his best in sustaining change. He has had two extended periods in the community and there has been no evidence of violence that would have placed the public at risk of serious harm. He is likely to work hard at building a life for himself on release. There will always be a risk of substance misuse and Probation are capable of monitoring this as they did on the last occasion. [The Applicant] appears to better understand the dangers of lapse and relapse and this mitigates the risk in this case.”