“4.3 The evidence heard by the panel and the views of the professional witnesses are summarised at the end of section 2. The main areas of concern link to [the Applicant’s] somewhat conflicted views about the role of alcohol in his life and this in turn creates some confusion regarding his ability to stick to his expressed undertaking to abstain. All of the professionals were of the view that he has further work to do, but the COM and POM appeared to be of the view that risk would be manageable, provided that [the Applicant] complies with his risk management plan. Based on custodial behaviour, the POM considered that compliance was now more likely than previously; the COM considered that it would rely on external controls being in place (such as the alcohol tag) and expressed some concern about the effect of this being removed in future. The psychologist did not feel able to express a clear view regarding release. 4.4 The panel appreciated the concerns of the professionals and shared them to the extent that they agreed that risk would principally arise if [the Applicant] were to return to drinking. However, they did not think that this would happen immediately. He does need to learn to manage his schemas, frustration, and sense of injustice without resort to drinking, to recognise when he needs help and to fully acknowledge the role alcohol plays in the risk he presents. The panel notes that between 2010 and 2017 when [the Applicant] was in the community he resorted to violence in the context of significant alcohol consumption. The recall also occurred in the context of a return to alcohol use, notwithstanding [the Applicant’s] awareness that a zero-tolerance approach would be taken. In this respect [the Applicant’s] view that alcohol is not an offence-related central problem for him is of concern. The panel took into account that [the Applicant] has completed a course with the Forward Trust but felt that he has further work to do to understand how his alcohol use is closely linked to his risk of resorting to violence. While [the Applicant] is commended for the progress he has made in this respect, the panel must consider risk in the longer term. 4.5 The panel attached weight to the fact that in custody there has been no violence during the recall, coupled with evidence of him managing violence when sober in his role as a mentor. There is also evidence that he can continue to learn new skills. The panel concluded, however, that [the Applicant] should undertake further work in custody to enable him to recognise his potential for serious violence after drinking, and fully embed appropriate strategies to mitigate this risk. For the reasons outlined, the panel concludes that it is necessary for the protection of the public that [the Applicant] remains confined . Accordingly, it makes no direction for release.”
“The present uncertainty for professionals regarding their ability to make clear recommendations has complicated an already complicated situation.”