“When consideration is being given to release on licence of a prisoner serving the custodial term of a determinate sentence, the issue for the Board is whether it is no longer necessary for the protection of the public that the prisoner be kept in custody. To say that risk after the expiry of the custodial term is irrelevant to the Board’s consideration of that exercise ignores the fact that the statutory test has no temporal element. It is, therefore, wrong to say that the Board is not empowered to consider risk after the expiry of the appropriate custodial term. If a prisoner will pose a danger after the expiry of that term, that is bound to be relevant to the issue of the safety of the prisoner’s release prior to that point. The statutory test to be applied by the Board when considering whether a prisoner should be released does not entail a balancing exercise where the risk to the public is weighed against the benefits of release to the prisoner. The exclusive question for the Board when applying the test for release in any context is whether the prisoner’s release would cause a more than minimal risk of serious harm to the public.”
“A more nuanced approach in modern public law is to test the decision-maker’s ultimate conclusion against the evidence before it and to ask whether the conclusion can (with due deference and with respect to the panel’s expertise) be safely justified on the basis of that evidence, particularly in a context where anxious scrutiny needs to be applied. … [T]his approach is simply another way of applying Lord Greene MR’s famous dictum in Wednesbury … but it is preferable in my view to put the test in more practical and structured terms on the following lines: does the conclusion follow from the evidence or is there an unexplained evidential gap or leap in reasoning which fails to justify the conclusion.”