“Judging whether it is necessary for the protectio n of the public that a prisoner be confined is often no easy matter. The test is not black and white. It does not require that a prisoner be detained until the Board is satisfied that there is no risk he will re-offend. What is necessary for the protection of the public is that the risk of re-offending is at a level that does not outweigh the hardship of keeping a prisoner detained until after he has served the term commensurate with his fault. Deciding whether that is the case is the Board’s judicial function.” 43. Applying the test in Sturnham and Brooke to the way the panel expressed itself, I cannot hold that the way in which it approached the issue of assessing the risk to the UK public that the Applicant would present if released was irrational. It was a matter which received careful consideration by the panel, and which the panel explained carefully (which brings into play Ground (4), failure to give adequate reasons for not accepting the receiving country’s risk management plan). 44. The panel focused on the threats referred to above, saying: “It is impossible, in the absence of any corroborative evidence, to determine whether this is a real or imagined threat, but it has to be taken seriously unless and until it can be discounted. It causes anxiety because some of your harassment offences were committed by proxy and also because by mentioning these threats you have introduced thoughts or ideas of violence, admittedly distancing yourself from any direct involvement in them. The panel agreed that on the available evidence, these threats increased your risk of causing serious harm, and had they emerged in the community, if released, would have triggered immediate high levels of concern with consequent consideration of recall. This reinforces the need for the control element of the life licence.” 45. It is therefore apparent that the panel carefully considered the evidence before it and concluded that the risk of re-offending was at a level that outweighed the hardship of keeping the Applicant detained at this stage. This was a conclusion to which the panel was entitled to come on the evidence, and which it explained appropriately. 46. The second basis for impugning the panel’s approach is that the panel, when considering the risk to the UK public, failed to appreciate the centrality of the Applicant’s mental health to his risk, and that the receiving country’s risk management plan would treat that risk. 47. The problem with that argument is that the panel manifestly and expressly understood the centrality of the Applicant’s mental health to his risk. See page 14 of the Decision Letter: “The panel is satisfied that the condition of your mental health and the outstanding psychological treatment makes your detention necessary, whether in prison or mental hospital. You accepted that you were not ready for life in the community.”
“It is respectfully requested that if the decision on whether or not [the Applicant’s] release can be directed in accordance with the Plan hangs on the question of whether the changes in medication, [the Applicant’s] mental illnesses, and/or stress levels could have resulted in the deterioration in his mental health we would respectfully ask that the Parole Board refrains from making a final determination but rather to adjourn pending a further assessment.” 56. The panel’s decision did not hang on the issues set out in the submissions. Therefore this ground of complaint is not made out. 57. The seventh ground of complaint is that the panel failed to deal with the threats in accordance with the Parole Board’s Guidance on Allegations. The argument is that the panel was obliged to make a finding of fact (presumably as to whether these threats arose from the Applicant’s mental illness or whether there was some objective reality to them). Making such a finding of fact, it is suggested, required an adjournment for a further mental health assessment. 58. The panel decided that, in the absence of any corroborative evidence, it was impossible to determine whether this was a real or imagined threat, but it had to be taken seriously unless and until it was discounted. It caused anxiety because some of the harassment offences were committed by proxy (see Paragraph 14 above) and also because by mentioning the threats the Applicant had introduced thoughts or ideas of violence, admittedly distancing himself from direct involvement in them. The panel considered that on the available evidence the threats increased the Applicant’s risk of causing serious harm, and that had they emerged in the community after release would have triggered immediate high levels of concern with consequent consideration of recall. This, the panel thought, reinforced the need for the control element of life licence. 59. In the Parole Board’s Guidance on Allegations “the term ‘Allegations’ refers to conduct alleged to have occurred which has not been adjudicated upon.”