"57. I accept that there may occasionally be cases where, at the conclusion of the evidence and submissions, the court will ultimately say that the local authority has not discharged the burden of proof to the requisite standard and thus decline to make the findings. That this is the case goes hand in hand with the well-established law that suspicion, or even strong suspicion, is not enough to discharge the burden of proof. The court must look at each possibility, both individually and together, factoring in all the evidence available including the medical evidence before deciding whether the "fact in issue more probably occurred than not" (Re B: Lord Hoffman). 58. In my judgment what one draws from Popi M and Nulty Deceased is that: i) Judges will decide a case on the burden of proof alone only when driven to it and where no other course is open to him given the unsatisfactory state of the evidence. ii) Consideration of such a case necessarily involves looking at the whole picture, including what gaps there are in the evidence, whether the individual factors relied upon are in themselves properly established, what factors may point away from the suggested explanation and what other explanation might fit the circumstances. iii) The court arrives at its conclusion by considering whether on an overall assessment of the evidence (i.e. on a preponderance of the evidence) the case for believing that the suggested event happened is more compelling than the case for not reaching that belief (which is not necessarily the same as believing positively that it did not happen) and not by reference to percentage possibilities or probabilities."
“in the brief summary of the submissions set out above there is a broad measure of agreement as to some of the considerations emphasized by the judgment in R v Cannings that are of direct application in care proceedings. We adopt the following:- i) The cause of an injury or an episode that cannot be explained scientifically remains equivocal. ii) Recurrence is not in itself probative. iii) Particular caution is necessary in any case where the medical experts disagree, one opinion declining to exclude a reasonable possibility of natural cause. iv) The court must always be on guard against the over-dogmatic expert, the expert whose reputation or amour propre is at stake, or the expert who has developed a scientific prejudice. v) The judge in care proceedings must never forget that today’s medical certainty may be discarded by the next generation of experts or that scientific research will throw light into corners that are at present dark.” and c) In the case of Re R (Children: Findings of Fact)[2024] EWCA Civ 153 , Peter Jackson LJ said at paragraph 34, “of course [the judge] was right to say that the court’s task was to determine whether the local authority had proved its case on threshold on the balance of probability. However, that involved grappling with and drawing conclusions from all of the evidence, medical and lay … Medical and non-medical evidence are both vital contributions in their own ways to these decisions and neither of them has precedence over the other.”
"182. If ever there was a case in which the court had to retain the big picture, both for the controversial and the uncontroversial evidence, this was it. Much of my time over the last four weeks in preparing this judgment has been spent not in writing or organising but in careful reflection on that big picture. In the end, I have come to a conclusion that the Local Authority has failed to prove its case to the requisite standard. In reaching that position, I also have to recognise that I have no clear answer to give as to how S died, since, and this is really common ground, none of the canvassed alternative suggestions could be clearly established. … 187. Since this is at least the second time that I have concluded after a long forensic enquiry that I do not know what has happened, I need to ask myself one hard question: is this simply a failure of judicial nerve to make a finding against a family such as this, the finding which is nevertheless required by the evidence as a whole? I ask that question not just because it occurred to me but also because I recognise that decisions in cases like this are not driven exclusively by the process of reasoning. 188. There is an element in human judgment that lies beyond cold rationality as every experienced trial judge soon comes to appreciate. In order to test that, I have reflected carefully upon the position as it would be were I to have found that the Local Authority had indeed established their case and this child had been sexually assaulted and killed by one or more members of a family who had then conspired to conceal the truth from all legitimate enquiry. I discovered that such a conclusion would be an affront to my judicial conscience."
“I have looked carefully at the methodology. Most of them [fractures seen in literature] were discerned by radiological examination or autopsy of fractures. The numbers are not great. In this case there are at least 10 fractures not seen by radiography. If the cases in all those papers were examined as thoroughly as Prof Mangham has in this case, I am certain that the presence of rib fractures found to be sustained during CPR would drastically increase. Those papers where there has been a post-mortem examination involved looking at the ribs by pulling back the pleura etc. Not many have had a histopathological examination as we have had here.”