“96. On the law as it stands, it seems to me that: i) a positive finding of exoneration, like a finding that harm has been inflicted, has to be based on the civil test, namely more likely than not, ii) in a case such as this, where there is a stark choice, a finding of exoneration is the same as one that the alleged abuse did not take place and is thus a mirror image of a finding that it did, iii) if such a finding is made, then the consequences of the legal policy set out in paragraph 10 of the speech of Lord Nicholls in Re O & N apply to it with the results that the real possibility that the conclusion may be wrong (which is inherent in the test) is ignored and the finding made “on the more likely than not” test is treated as a definite fact, because it is treated as something that definitely happened or did not happen, iv) this has the result that assessments, and decisions by the court and the local authority, proceed on the basis that it is a definite fact that the person exonerated did not act as alleged (and therefore in this case that Mr B did not sexually abuse R, that Mr B’s denial of R’s allegations are true, and that her allegations are untrue), and v) this is the mirror image of the position if a finding was made that it was more likely than not that Mr B had sexually abused R as she alleges. Then the court and the local authority would proceed on the basis that it is a definite fact that such sexual abuse took place, that R’s allegations are true and that Mr B’s denials are untrue. 97. In a case where there is potentially more than one perpetrator a finding exonerating a person of inflicting harm would often have two stages. The first would identify the pool of possible perpetrators and the second would involve the issue whether the actual perpetrator can be identified from the pool. At the first stage the test to be applied is the “real possibility test”, at the second the test is the “more likely than not test”
“In the context of the existing law, since the court at the welfare stage cannot treat as proved facts which have not been proved to the civil standard, nor can it draw inferences as to the future from past events which are not proved to the requisite standard, nor can it treat the child as at risk on the basis of such facts, the standard of proof for exoneration does not need to be explored. If, however, the judge is satisfied that the individual did not do the things alleged on a civil standard of proof, he should say so. It is accepted that heightened cogency is necessary to enable a court to make a finding exonerating Mr B in this case and that on the facts as found no such finding can be made”