“… whilst [HMG’s current hedging] does provide a certain amount of protection the recent sharp rises in 3 month LIBOR are causing a significant increase in HMG’s interest cost. Therefore I thought it would be useful to have a look at a re-structure which blends the break costs of the existing hedges (thus avoiding any cash outlay) and provides significantly improved protection which will reduce the company’s immediate interest costs …”
“Suggested re-structure … HMG breaks all the existing hedges and blends the break costs into the following new collar structure … Start date – 19/04/08 … Maturity – 19/01/12 … Notional amount -£35 m bullet … HMG purchase 5.60% CAP … HMG sell 4.15% FLOOR … If 3 month LIBOR fixes below 4.15% HMG interest cost increase by difference between actual fixing and 4.15% … However, this capped at 5.60% … On maturity RBS has the right to extend the collar on exactly the same terms for a further 4 years on£35m bullet notional … So the company improve the protection level by 90 basis points (current 6.50%) and although the floor level is increased slightly if 3 month LIBOR does fix below the floor it will have to fall below 3.55% this year and 3.05% until 2012 to match the fixed rate potentially payable on the existing collar (4.75% and 5.25%).”
“I have circulated and will let you know if we are interested”, adding “I assume we can revamp the hedging even if we don’t proceed with Burton”
“Mr Mitchell, our chairman [sic], has just asked why there is a break cost of£300k for our present collar. Is it possible to let me know in a way I would understand!!”
“Well I think potentially you’re actually decreasing it, and I’ll tell you the reason why.”
“… although the floor level is increased slightly if 3 month LIBOR does fix below the floor it will have to fall below 3.55% this year and 3.05% until 2012 to match the fixed rate potentially payable on the existing collar (4.75% and 5.25%).”
“… The probabilities are exactly the same of those two floors of going below 3.95, but if we go below 3.95 there’s a payoff that you pay, you need to pay the bank which is much higher than, than the normal, standard floor. Because what you’ve got is a situation at the moment is if the market fixes at or below 3.95 then the interest costs that HMG pays for this, from now to the end of January 2009 is 4.75, and then for 2009 to 2012 is 5.25%”
“Mr Bescoby: … so what we were saying is this. This, collar structure says that if – it’s not a normal collar structure. What it says is if the three month LIBOR fixes at or below 3.95 then HMG will pay a higher fixed rate for that period. Mr Mitchell: Yeah. Mr Bescoby: So out until January 2009 that higher fixed rate will be 4.75. From January ---- Mr Mitchell: That’s the existing one? Mr Bescoby: Yeah, yeah, this is the existing one I’m talking about. Mr Mitchell: Yeah. Mr Bescoby: And then from 2009 to 2012 the, the higher fixed rate will actually be 5.25 percent. Mr Mitchell: Uh huh, I’ve got you. Mr Bescoby: So what we’re saying is that the probability of it going below 3.95 isn’t necessarily high. Obviously we have to build into the fact that there is a probability. But what it is saying is that if we do go below that 3.95 then ---- Mr Mitchell: Those are big numbers. Mr Bescoby: Those are big – yeah, there, there’s a big number ---- Mr Mitchell: I’ve got it. Mr Bescoby: -- ie HMG will not pay 3.95. Mr Mitchell: Now I’m getting the point. Mr Bescoby: Right. Mr Mitchell: Because now, even with the higher thresholds ---- Mr Bescoby: Yeah. Mr Mitchell: -- it’s a lower impact. Mr Bescoby: It’s a lower impact, absolutely. Mr Mitchell: I’ve got you. Tony, I’ve got you.”
“The … structured floor which you’ve got [ie under the Original Hedging Instruments] has the biggest value [ie value to the Bank], and that’s£230,000 , …”
“What do the words “Well I think potentially you’re actually decreasing it” mean?”
“Q. He [Mr Mitchell] is worried that HMG might be about to step into a new transaction where the downside risk is actually greater? A. Yes, that's correct. Q. He's talking about that, in terms of comparing the two he is looking at pricing of what you might call the downside of the transaction as a matter of objective fact? A. Yes.”
“You think it’s a pretty good swap, swap for us to do, don’t you?”
“Mr Bescoby: I think it’s one of those things where it just – and I think he has hit the nail bang on the head, that there is a slightly bigger risk that we’ll go through the floor but the greater – Mr Thomas: Mmm hmm. Mr Bescoby: -- sorry, but there’s less of an impact ---- Mr Thomas: Yeah, I (inaudible – over speaking). Mr Bescoby: -- if you see what I mean. Mr Thomas: Yeah. We’re all ready to go ahead. Do you need a fax confirmation or will a verbal one do?”
“Well I think potentially you’re actually decreasing it, and I’ll tell you the reason why.”
“… My Lord, the new floor structure does not decrease the risk, nor is the risk the same. The risk has increased, and it has increased for a number of reasons. The first reason it has increased is that the cap rate was reduced, and in order to pay for that reduction in the cap rate, the risk – so the lowering of risk should interest rates rise – the risk must necessarily increase should interest rates fall. One can’t just reduce or increase risk without there being – without a risk changing elsewhere, unless premium was being paid. There was no premium paid in this case, so a decrease in risk should interest rates rise must be compensated for by an increase in risk should interest rates fall. In addition to that, the bank took out a revenue of£240,000 –odd. That means in order to pay for that revenue, the risk must also increase. Given that it can’t increase should interest rates rise, because they have reduced the cap rate, that£240,000 worth of risk must also increase should interest rates fall. Now the effect – where the risk arises from should interest rates fall comes from a number of factors. The first factor are the various puts that HMG have sold to the bank, or effectively sold to the bank within the structure. The second factor is the swaption, the bank’s option to extend the extendable geared collar. Everything taken together implies that the risk has increased, and it cannot be otherwise. Excluding the extension option, and using the valuations that we have, the risk has still increased even after adjusting for the increase in the notional value of the original hedging instruments and the extendable hedging product. So in every analysis that I have done, it demonstrates that the risk has increased and it cannot be otherwise….”