“16. The test imposed by the statute is “a real likelihood”, and it is undesirable to put any gloss upon those words. But equally it is unhelpful simply to say that I share the view of Mr Registrar Nicholls that, having regard to the terms of the intended demerger in the instant case, no creditor could satisfy that test and accordingly a list of creditors was properly dispensed with. 17. Where the section calls upon a creditor to show “a real likelihood” that the reduction “would” result in an inability to discharge the debt when it becomes due, it is calling upon the creditor to demonstrate a particular present assessment about a future state of affairs. In considering the evidence I identified three elements: what follows is descriptive of the course I followed, not prescriptive as a course to be adopted by others. 18. First, I looked at the factual: whatever assessment is made has to be well grounded in the facts as they are now known. Although one is looking to the future one has to avoid the purely speculative. 19. Second, there is a temporal element. One is looking forward for a period in relation to which it is sensible to make predictions. That period will, of course, be affected by the nature and duration of the liability in question. So a continuing direct liability under a lease may indicate that a correspondingly long term view must be taken. But in general the more remote in time the contemplated event that will make payment fall due the more difficult it must be to establish the reality of the likelihood that the return of capital will itself result in inability to discharge the debt. For private companies directors are required to look forward for 12 months. I do not suggest that implicitly the same period applies where the sanction of the court is necessary: but I do consider that in any given case there will be a natural temporal boundary beyond which sensible assessment of likelihood is not possible. 20. Third, the section obviously does not require a creditor to prove that a future event will happen: it is concerned to evaluate the chance of the event (the company’s inability to discharge the debt because it has returned capital). It describes the chance as “real likelihood”, thereby requiring the objecting creditor to go some way up the probability scale, beyond the merely possible, but short of the probable. That is the “degree of persuasion” (as it was put by Hoffmann J in Re Harris Simons Construction Ltd[1989] BCLC 202 at 204) for which I have looked in assessing the evidence.”
“According to this model (which of course can only predict and cannot guarantee future outcomes) the company should have at least£90m of available working capital at the end of each quarter up until the fourth quarter of 2011, and presently forecast net assets of£1.845bn for the calendar year ending 2011. There is thus a credible foundation in the evidence to support a current assessment that the company has sufficient working capital for its present requirements and for at least 18 months following the date of the proposed demerger.”
“While recognising the disclaimer of any intent to be prescriptive, I consider that this judgment provides a helpful approach which is likely to be applicable in the majority of cases. I agree with the emphasis of the need to avoid the purely speculative. I also agree that s.646(1)(b) is concerned to evaluate the chance (“beyond the merely possible, but short of the probable”) of the company’s inability to discharge the debt because of the reduction of capital. I stress those words, because it is the causative link between the reduction of capital and the company’s perceived future inability to discharge the debt which is crucial. An objecting creditor, i.e. a creditor who seeks to show that he is entitled to object, must establish a “real likelihood” (i) that the company will be unable to pay his claim when it falls due for payment at some time in the future and (ii) that that inability to pay his claim at that time in the future will result from the reduction of capital now. Of particular relevance in this context is what Norris J calls … the “temporal element” …”
“In all the circumstances, and having regard to the company’s financial position as shown in its accounts, to the regulatory regime imposed by the FSA and to the fact that the company appears to satisfy the requirements of that regime by a significant margin, and having regard also to the view of the reporter that the FSA regulatory regime is likely to provide a more sophisticated and reliable test of a company’s ability to meet its debts as and when they fall due than the realisable assets test often used in the past, I can see no realistic possibility that any creditor would be able to persuade the court that there was a “real likelihood” that, if the reduction of capital was confirmed and a distribution made as proposed, that return of capital would result in the company being unable to discharge its debts … My conclusions mean that there are no creditors “entitled to object” and there is therefore nothing to be gained by settling a list of creditors entitled to object.”
“116. … the cash flow forecasts to31 March 2017 … assume that the Company is able to refinance its bonds and bank facilities as they mature. The terms on which the Company will be able to do so will depend, among other things, on the expected trading performance of the Group’s underlying business, the Group’s financial position and credit market sentiment at that time. 117. However, mature telecommunications companies with investment grade credit ratings, such as the Company, have historically been able to raise debt finance even in adverse (and sometimes unprecedentedly adverse) conditions. 118. For example, during the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2013, which was a period of unprecedented turmoil in financial markets and crippling uncertainty in the global economic outlook, the Company was, in aggregate, able to issue$17,665 million of bonds, refinance nearly$10,000 million of syndicated revolving credit facilities, and secure bilateral bank loans of just over$7,500 million . This demonstrates that the Company has had, and expects that it will continue to have, excellent access to credit of all kinds, at a range of maturities and in testing conditions.”
“essentially cash flows from operations net of capital expenditure, changes in working capital, dividends paid to/from minorities, tax and interest paid and received. It generally represents cash flow available for investment in spectrum, mergers and acquisitions and returns to shareholders.”