“Demand for air travel has grown strongly in recent decades, and the Government expects that demand will continue to rise significantly between now and 2050. Growth in demand for air travel means increasing pressure on our airspace. The strategic case for airspace modernisation and the resultant benefits were set out by the Department for Transport in 2017. Those benefits include more choice and value for consumers, through the capacity for airlines to add new flights, reduced flight delays and enhanced global connections that can help to boost the UK economy, while continuing to improve high safety standards. Unlocking the benefits of modernisation will make journeys faster and more environmentally friendly. Better airspace design can manage noise impacts and improve access for other airspace users, including the Ministry of Defence, which requires more access to airspace to support a greater number of military aircraft.”
“4 Despite the efforts made by Farnborough to accommodate military requirements, there are 2 outstanding concerns which have proven difficult to fully address. These are as follows: a) traffic funnelling. Comprehensive data analysis provided by Farnborough has suggested that any increase in traffic transiting close to or through the RAF Odiham MATZ would be negligible compared to current figures….. The MoD are of the opinion that the analysis conducted and data collected does not provide a comprehensive picture of the prevailing traffic situation in this geographical area, particularly with respect to non-transponding traffic and gliders not FLARM equipped. It is the opinion of the MoD that even the slight increase in movements predicted by Farnborough within this already congested and contested airspace will have a noticeable impact. The MoD are still of the opinion that should traffic choose to route around the proposed CAS be that for ease or due to a lack of suitable radio/navigational equipment, this may increase the likelihood of Mid-Air Collision (MAC) to other airspace users. In addition, avoidance of the proposed CAS by transiting traffic could increase movement through the portion of the RAF Odiham MATZ that sits outside the proposed CAS, making the controlling of IFR approaches and departures particularly challenging. ….. 5 Ultimately, the issues of traffic funnelling and noise pollution are difficult to predict ahead of any ACP implementation, despite the analysis and mitigations proffered by Farnborough. Should the Farnborough ACP be implemented in in its current form, the MOD would actively monitor the ACP’s impact on all aspects of our operations, with particular emphasis on funnelling and noise pollution. DAATM would raise significant concerns to the CAA as a matter of urgency and would not wish to be constrained by standard post implementation review timelines. …. Conclusion 8 The MoD has no objection to this ACP…. It is clear that concerns regarding traffic funnelling and noise pollution are unlikely to be resolved ahead of the proposed airspace change and that these would be closely monitored by the MoD post implementation. The draft LOA provided by Farnborough includes several robust procedures which will allow RAF Odiham operations to continue as per the current day for the majority of the time, however, it is clear that more work is required to include 618 VGS requirements. Finally, the MOD would wish to be included in the ongoing development of the LOA to ensure that fair and equitable access to the proposed CAS is agreed to ensure minimal impact on MoD operations”
“66.— Air navigation: directions. (1) The Secretary of State may give directions to the CAA imposing duties or conferring powers (or both) on it with regard to air navigation in a managed area. …” …”
“Airspace design 3. The CAA must— (a) develop and publish a national policy for the classification of UK airspace; (b) classify UK airspace in accordance with such national policy, publish such classification, keep such classification under review and, as the CAA considers necessary, modify it; (c) develop and publish rules, guidelines, technical design criteria and common procedures for the use of UK airspace; … (e) prepare and maintain a co-ordinated strategy and plan for the use of UK airspace for air navigation up to 2040, including for the modernisation of the use of such airspace; … Airspace changes: procedure and guidance 4.—(1) Subject to directions 6 and 9, the CAA must develop and publish procedures, and guidance on such procedures, for the development, making and consideration of a proposal— it; … (a). for a permanent change to airspace design, … (1) A procedure developed under paragraph (1) must be proportionate and reflect published Government policy. … Proposed permanent change to airspace design 5.—(1) Subject to direction 6, in accordance with its published strategy, procedures and policy on the design and classification of UK airspace, the CAA must decide whether to approve a proposal for a permanent change to airspace design. (2) The CAA may make its approval of a proposal subject to such modifications and conditions as the CAA considers necessary.”
“6. The CAA has concluded that the Modified ACP maintains a high standard of safety in a congested area of airspace used by a wide variety of airspace users and aircraft that will benefit from changes to airspace design that create a known environment and that the classification of airspace approved combined with the access arrangements open to all radio equipped aircraft mean the changes will not create a detrimental effect on safety in surrounding remaining Class G airspace, in particular the changes will not create the detrimental effect on safety referred to as ‘bottle-necks’ in surrounding remaining Class G airspace. 7. The CAA has concluded that the Modified ACP will make the most efficient use of airspace because the airspace design we have decided to approve will increase the overall number of aircraft that can safely use the airspace. The CAA has concluded that the Modified ACP will enable all aircraft to benefit from the expeditious flow of traffic because IFR traffic will now be able to flight plan using SIDs and STARs and are less likely to be rerouted due to risk of conflict with an unknown aircraft. 8. The CAA has concluded that the Modified ACP combined with the access arrangements open to all to accept represents the most equitable means of satisfying the requirements of the operators and owners of all classes of aircraft whilst at the same time achieving the important benefits of the proposal. 9. The CAA has taken into account the environmental impact of the change as set out in this decision and has concluded that when considering all of the CAA’s statutory duties as a whole it is reasonably proportionate and the right decision to approve the proposal. 10. The CAA has considered alternatives proposed by GA stakeholders. These proposals were not treated as an airspace change proposal as they had not followed the process a Sponsor must follow to propose a change to airspace design to the CAA (CAP 725). Nonetheless careful consideration has been given to whether any of the alternatives proposed or the information in the alternatives proposed means the ACP should be modified in any of the ways proposed. The CAA has concluded it should not. The CAA has concluded that the design proposed is unfeasible due to the effect on Gatwick and Heathrow and that the design proposed is so different to that being considered by the CAA in this proposal that it could not be dealt with by way of a modification but would need to be proposed as an alternative proposal developed in accordance with the CAA’s airspace change process.”
“182 Although Mr Reading criticised [the TAG analysis], in my view this was, and is, sound analysis which the CAA had in mind …and which accorded with our own understanding of this airspace …… 184………..I appreciate the LGS does not agree with TAG’s analysis that the new CAS would result in 5 to 7 additional powered GA movements per hour through the ‘Lasham bottleneck’ (accepting that this does not include gliding activity). But this modelled prediction accorded with my team’s observations in the control room at Farnborough. The CAA does not agree with LGS’s numbers….. … 186 it is true that the CAA did not itself carry out any independent detailed analysis of the numbers on which TAG’s predictions were based. But that is not how the airspace design change process works. It is for the Sponsor to persuade the CAA, with acceptable evidence, that its proposal will maintain a high standard of safety. Within the parameters of our standard process and policy requirements the choice as to the nature of that evidence is, in the first instance, for the Sponsor. As I mentioned above, no definitive or universal methodology exists to calculate the exact numbers of VFR users in any given volume of airspace and the process relies on a Sponsor’s consultation to draw out the local issues, as well as the current positions of national representative bodies on the matter. The CAA received TAG’s proposal, which included analysis, and all that analysis was carefully examined in the light of all the consultation responses. I also note, once more that the CAA did initiate its own enquiry where it felt that necessary….. … 188 But in any event CAA was starting from a position in which it had a great depth of knowledge here, about patterns of GA behaviour generally and about GA traffic in this area. The CAA had previously commissioned QinetiQ to produce a Class G users ‘behaviours” model and draft report. This was based largely on responses to questionnaires sent to Class G users and some working assumptions. The working assumptions included that new class D would see about one third of GA request clearance through the new class D. TAG used the QuinetiQ work and TAG’s assumption that 30% of the 15 powered VFR per hour would request a clearance with the ACP in place was in line with the QinetiQ work. However, it is important to bear in mind that these were only assumptions (in the QinetiQ work and the TAG work) and the CAA was well aware of that. I consider the assumptions conservative. 189 in addition to the QinetiQ report the CAA had also Sponsored and participated in VFR working groups such a 21st century class G. All of this helped to inform CAA’s thinking and decision-making with regard to GA.”
“the unit took the worst case scenario – the average of the maximum between the hours of 0800 and 2000 UTC which is 13.7 and then rounded up to 15 per hour”