“68. At a Local Plan examination, it is important to establish the basis of future housing land supply, both for five year supply and throughout the plan period. Firstly, CEC has acknowledged that, at present, it is unlikely to be able to demonstrate a five year supply of housing land. However, with the identification and endorsement of the strategic site allocations included in the CELPS-PC, this situation should be resolved, particularly with the abandonment of the phasing policy included in the original CELPS-SD. Much will depend on whether the committed and proposed housing sites come forward in line with the anticipated timescale and amended housing trajectory. Although there may be arguments about specific sites, developers and landowners have confirmed the capacity, timescale, viability and deliverability of almost all the proposed strategic site allocations. 69. CEC has undertaken much detailed work in establishing the timescales and delivery of these sites, including setting out the methodology for assessing build rates and lead in times, using developers’ information where available and responding to specific concerns. Although there may be some slippage or advancement in some cases, I am satisfied that, in overall terms, there are no fundamental constraints which would delay, defer or prevent the implementation of the overall housing strategy. The monitoring framework also includes specific indicators related to housing supply with triggers to indicate the need for review. I deal with site specific issues later in my report on a town by town basis. On the basis of the evidence currently available, I am satisfied that CEC has undertaken a robust, comprehensive and proportionate assessment of the delivery of its housing land supply, which confirms a future five year supply of around 5.3 years. … 75 CEC has drawn up a revised housing trajectory, based on its assessments of the delivery and timescales of the main components of housing supply, including the proposed strategic housing sites. This shows the annual delivery rates, including significantly increased rates of housing completions between 2016 / 17 – 2024/25, ranging from 2,000 to over 3,500 DW/YR, fully meeting the required delivery rates. Although these higher delivery rates will be challenging and ambitious, the CELPS-PC includes sufficient committed and allocated sites to ensure that the plan can be implemented, with adequate choice and flexibility. 76. On the basis of the evidence before me, I conclude that the CELPS-PC, as updated and amended, would provide a realistic, deliverable and effective supply of housing land, to fully meet the objectively assessed housing requirement, with enough flexibility to ensure that the housing strategy is successfully implemented. Similarly, CEC should be able to demonstrate that there is at least a five year supply of housing land when the CELPS is adopted.”
“6 The Council’s ability to demonstrate a five year supply of deliverable housing sites is one of the main issues in determining this appeal. It affects whether or not the appeal is to be considered against the “tilted balance” set out in the fourth bullet point of paragraph 14 of the National Planning Policy Framework (“the Framework”). 7 Paragraph 49 of the Framework states that relevant policies for the supply of housing should not be considered up to date if the Council is unable to demonstrate a five year supply. Where paragraph 49 of the Framework applies, paragraph 14 states that permission should be granted unless any adverse impacts of doing so would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits, when assessed against the policies in the Framework taken as a whole. 8 The Council asserts in its Statement that it is able to demonstrate a five year supply of deliverable housing sites. However, the Appellant has drawn my attention to a recent appeal decision elsewhere in the borough that found that the five year supply position should be considered marginal and potentially in doubt. That Inspector concluded that it would be both cautious and prudent to regard policies for the supply of housing as not being up to date, thus engaging the “tilted balance” at paragraph 14 of the Framework. 9 The Council subsequently referred me to evidence it had submitted in relation to another case that had recently been subject to a public inquiry. However, that decision was published on the4th January 2018 and similarly concluded that the Council’s five year supply position was marginal. Accordingly, the Inspector considered that appeal against the “tilted balance” at paragraph 14 of the Framework. 10 Both of these recent appeal decisions were determined following a public inquiry, which would have allowed the Council’s housing land supply to be scrutinised in detail. In both cases, the Council’s supply position was found to be marginal and the “tilted balance” was applied. I see no reason to take a different view and I, therefore, regard policies for the supply of housing as being not up to date. Accordingly, I have considered the appeal against paragraph 14 of the Framework. I return to this matter in the overall balance below.”
“33. … as set out above, recent appeal decisions have found the Council’s five year supply position to be marginal and have, therefore, applied the ‘tilted balance’ at the fourth bullet point of paragraph 14. I have adopted the same approach here. 34. In terms of the adverse impacts of the development, the appeal site is within the open countryside and a strategic green gap between Shavington and Crewe. In this regard, it would be contrary to policies PG5 and PG6 of the CELPS, and saved policies NE.4 and RES.5 of the Borough of Crewe & Nantwich Adopted Replacement Local Plan. However, as set out above, the harm to the surrounding landscape would be limited and there will be no significant erosion of the physical and visual gap between Shavington and Crewe. In these circumstances, and in the context of the ‘tilted balance’ at paragraph 14 of the Framework, I attach limited weight to the conflict with these policies. The development would also involve the loss of an area of best and most versatile farmland, although this would be modest in scale.”
“On balance, and taking all matters into consideration, I conclude that the adverse impacts would not significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits of the development. The development would therefore comprise sustainable development as set out in the Framework. In this case, the conflict with the Development Plan would be outweighed by other material considerations.”
“60. From the foregoing, it is apparent that a significant number of dwellings included in the Council’s five year supply, are at risk of failing to materialise within the timeframe identified, amounting to some 1,033 to 1,636 dwellings, as set out in the following table.”
“61. This would at best provide the Council with a headroom of 200 units; and the supply of 5.07 years. At worst, there would be a deficit of 130 dwellings and a supply of 4.96 years. To my mind, even though the calculated supply includes a 20% buffer, the five year supply should be considered to be marginal and, potentially, in doubt. 62. Therefore, on the basis of the fact-specific evidence before me, and the illustrated risk of available housing supply falling slightly below the five year requirement, I cannot determine with confidence that a marginal best case excess amounts to a sufficiently robust supply of specific deliverable sites. Given the importance of the five year baseline, and the aim to significantly boost the supply of housing, I conclude that it would be both cautious and prudent in the circumstances of this case to regard policies for the supply of housing to be considered not up to date, thus engaging the ‘tilted balance’ of paragraph 14 of the Framework.”
“87. The Framework sets out the importance of Local Planning Authorities being able to demonstrate a five year supply of specific deliverable housing sites. Whilst much analysis has underpinned the recent adoption of the CELPS, and its affirmed supply of 5.3 years, the base data has now rolled forward by a year with a publication of the Housing Monitoring Update in 2017. 88. The assessment of a five year supply is by no means an exact science and it requires forethought and professional judgement. The Local Planning Authority has the benefit of long-term statistical data, extensive local knowledge and regular dialogue with landowners and / or developers. However, the exercise undertaken by the Appellant, although considerably more limited in scope, calls into question some of the assumptions made by the Council sufficient to warrant examination of the likely future prospects of a number of identified sites. 89. Moreover, detailed analysis of those sites on which the parties disagree, confirms a degree of over-optimism on the Council’s part and raises doubt about the robustness of its five year supply. In this regard, delivery has continued to lag and considerable improvements will be required to achieve the necessary number of completions. Nonetheless, the adoption of the CELPS has seen the release and confirmation of sites for development and there has been a notable increase in the number of new homes with planning permission or with the resolution to approve. 90. Overall, the question mark hanging over the five year supply has to be seen in this wider context and, on the basis of the Appellant’s one year exercise, it is too early to assess whether or not the assumptions on which the CELPS is based are robust. Nonetheless, it would be prudent on the fact-specific circumstances of this case to consider relevant policies for the supply of housing to be on the cusp of being considered not up to date and, as a precaution, to apply the ‘tilted balance’ of paragraph 14 of the Framework… 92. In terms of the existing relevant Development Plan Policies, in the absence of a five year supply, existing, generally long-established and dated settlement boundaries, albeit sanctioned by the CELPS pending review, should be considered to be out of date. On this basis, limited weight applies to the identified conflict with CELPS policy PG6 and C&NRLP Policy RES.5. … 98. In the final balance, the conflict with policies PG.2 and PG.7 of the recently adopted CELPS, and also with policies PG.6 and RES.5, as described above, provides the totality of the planning harm. Paragraph 14 of the Framework indicates that where relevant policies in the Development Plan are out of date, in this case arising from the marginality of a sufficiently convincing five year housing land supply, planning permission should be granted unless any adverse effects of doing so would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits, when assessed against the policies in the Framework as a whole.”
“11. Whether or not the Council can demonstrate a five year supply of deliverable housing sites is one of the main issues in this case. It affects whether or not the appeal falls to be determined under the ‘tilted balance’ in the fourth bullet point of paragraph 14 of the Framework. At the time the appeal was submitted, the Council stated it could not demonstrate a five year supply of deliverable housing sites. However, following the adoption of the CELPS, it is the Council’s case that it can now demonstrate a five year housing land supply. This is disputed by the Appellant.”
“43. A statement of common ground on housing land supply was submitted by the Council and the Appellant at the inquiry. It confirms that the housing requirement side of the land supply calculation is agreed between the main parties. The five year supply that must be demonstrated totals 14,824 dwellings over the period1st April 2017 to31st March 2022 . … 46. The Council’s position is that it can demonstrate a supply of deliverable housing sites sufficient to provide 16,042 dwellings within the five year period, which amounts to 5.14 years’ supply. The Appellant contends that only 13,792 dwellings could be realistically delivered, giving 4.65 years’ supply. The main reasons for the difference between the two supply calculations are a combination of ‘in principle’ and site specific differences between the Council and the Appellant about the lead in times for sites to commence delivery and the resultant yield in the number of dwellings which could realistically be built within the five year period. 47. In considering these differences, I have taken account of the findings of the Court of Appeal in the St. Modwen Judgment on the distinction to be drawn between ‘deliverability’ and ‘delivery’ in assessing the five year housing land supply. I acknowledge, as stated in the St. Modwen Judgment, that proving the ‘deliverability’ of the housing land supply does not require certainty that sites will be developed within the five year period, particularly given the range of market factors affecting housing delivery, which can be difficult to predict and is subject to change over time. 48. However, the likelihood and rate of delivery are part of the assessment of the ‘deliverability’ of the supply, as set out in the Framework in the PPG. Footnote 11 to the Framework is clear that for a site to be considered ‘deliverable’ there should be a ‘realistic prospect’ that housing would be delivered on the site within five years. Paragraph 3-031 of the PPG, in its guidance on what constitutes a deliverable site for housing, expects local authorities to provide robust, up to date evidence to support the deliverability of sites and to consider the time it will take to commence development on site and build out rates to ensure a robust five year supply. 49. These matters are considered in both the Council’s and the Appellant’s approach to assessing the deliverability of sites. They are reflected in the Council’s housing trajectory, as presented in the Housing Monitoring Updates (“HMUs”). I acknowledge that the HMU and Trajectory are prepared at a point in time and that changes in the progress of sites will take place throughout the year. However, in order to assess whether there is a deliverable five year housing land supply for the purposes of this appeal, it is necessary to test the robustness of the assumptions on which the trajectory is based and the progress on sites, against the current available evidence as submitted to the Inquiry.”
“58. Beginning with the land off Dunwoody Way, Crewe (Ref 1934), although the site is under construction with 53 units complete, no completions have been recorded since 2013 / 14. The Council confirmed at the roundtable session that the site had stalled due to financial difficulties. Although it is possible that the remaining 29 units could be built within the next five years, in the absence of any evidence of ongoing discussions with potential developers to take the site forward, there appears no realistic prospect at this stage of the site being completed. Accordingly, these 29 units should be deducted from the supply. … 66. The King’s School, Westminster Road, Macclesfield (4302) has outline planning permission for redevelopment for 150 units, pending the relocation of the school to a new site. The Council confirm that the timescale for the opening of the new school in vacating this site has been revised to September 2020, pushing back commencement of development on this site until then. Accordingly, its revised prediction is that 15 units would be constructed on the site in the second half of 2020 / 21. However, allowing for site preparation and infrastructure works, realistically construction of units will be unlikely to start until the beginning of 2021 /22. Whilst further land has become available at Cumberland Street, which the Council suggested could compensate for the delay on the main site, the yield from this site is uncertain, given the need for listed building consent for the conversion of the old school buildings. Very little evidence was before me on which to make a reasoned judgement about the likely contribution of this site to the five year supply. Therefore, a reduction in the five year supply of 45 units from that predicted in the table attached to the SOCG would be justified for the Westminster Road site.”
“93. Based on my analysis of the disputed sites, which is summarised in the table below, I conclude there is a realistic prospect of between 1,181 and 1,421 dwellings included in the Council’s five year housing land supply will not be delivered within the five year period. 94. The Council’s estimated supply of 16,042 dwellings exceeds the five year requirement of 14,824 dwellings by 1,218 dwellings. However, based on the above analysis, the supply would be between 14,861 and 14,621 dwellings. Therefore, the range falls either side of a five year supply, from a surplus of 37 dwellings or 5.01 years’ supply to a shortfall of 203 dwellings or 4.93 years. … 96. I acknowledge that the assessment of a five year supply is not an exact science, but involves professional judgement, particularly on lead in and delivery timescales. However, notwithstanding the conclusions of the CELPS Examination Report in respect of a five year land supply and other recent appeal decisions on this issue, based on my analysis of the evidence at this appeal, I cannot be certain that the Council is able to demonstrate a robust five year supply of deliverable housing sites. I have found that the housing land supply position is either marginally above or slightly below five years. On this basis, I propose to adopt a precautionary approach to the housing land supply position and, in the light of paragraph 49 of the framework, apply the ‘tilted balance’ in the determination of this appeal, as set out in the fourth bullet point of paragraph 14 of the Framework.”
“103.Section 38(6) of the Planning & Compulsory Purchase Act 2004 requires that applications for planning permission must be determined in accordance with the Development Plan unless material considerations indicate otherwise. An important material consideration is the presumption in favour of sustainable development in paragraph 14 of the Framework. I have not been able to come to a definitive view on the question of a five year housing land supply in this appeal. Therefore, I propose to adopt a precautionary approach, taking the worst case position within the range on housing land supply as I have found it, and apply the ‘tilted balance’ in the fourth bullet point of paragraph 14 in the determination of this case. This provides that where the Development Plan is silent or relevant policies are out of date, permission should be granted unless the adverse impacts of doing so would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits, when assessed against the policies in the Framework taken as a whole.”
“To be considered deliverable, sites should be available now, offer a suitable location for development now, and be achievable with a realistic prospect that housing will be delivered on the site within five years and in particular that development of the site is viable. Sites with planning permission should be considered deliverable until permission expires, unless there is clear evidence that schemes will not be implemented within five years, for example they will not be viable, there is no longer a demand for the type of units or sites have long term phasing plans.”
“49. Housing applications should be considered in the context of the presumption in favour of sustainable development. Relevant policies for the supply of housing should not be considered up-to-date if the local planning authority cannot demonstrate a five-year supply of deliverable housing sites.”
“For decision-taking this means: • approving development proposals that accord with the development plan without delay; and • where the development plan is absent, silent or relevant policies are out-of-date, granting permission unless: – any adverse impacts of doing so would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits, when assessed against the policies in this Framework taken as a whole; or – specific policies in this Framework indicate development should be restricted.” – any adverse impacts of doing so would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits, when assessed against the policies in this Framework taken as a whole; or – specific policies in this Framework indicate development should be restricted.”
“96. I acknowledge that the assessment of a five year supply is not an exact science but involves professional judgement, particularly on lead-in and delivery timescales. However, notwithstanding the conclusion of the CELPS Examination Report in respect of a five year land supply and other recent appeal decisions on this issue, based on my analysis of the evidence of this appeal, I cannot be certain that the Council is able to demonstrate a robust five year supply of deliverable housing sites. I have found that the housing land supply position is either marginally above or slightly below five years. On this basis, I propose to adopt a precautionary approach to the housing land supply position, and in the light of paragraph 49 of the Framework, apply the ‘tilted balance’ in the determination of this appeal, as set out in the fourth bullet point of paragraph 14 of the Framework. … 103. I have not been able to come to a definitive view on the question of a five year housing land supply in this appeal. Therefore, I propose to adopt a precautionary approach, taking the worst case position within the range on housing land supplies I have found it, and apply the ‘tilted balance’ in the fourth bullet point at paragraph 14 in the determination of this case. This provides that where the Development Plan is silent or relevant policies are out of date, permission should be granted unless the adverse impacts of doing so would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits when assessed against the policies in the framework taken as a whole.”
“62. Therefore, on the basis of the fact specific evidence before me and the illustrated risk of available housing supply falling slightly below the five year requirement, I cannot determine with confidence that a marginal best case excess amounts to a sufficiently robust supply of specific deliverable sites. Given the importance of the five year baseline and the aim to significantly boost the supply of housing, I conclude that it would be both cautious and prudent in the circumstances of this case to regard policies for the supply of housing to be considered not up to date, thus engaging the tilted balance at paragraph 14 of the framework.”