“It will be necessary to manage the cumulative traffic impact generated by the new developments following the implementation of measures which maximise the use of walk, cycle and passenger transport modes. All proposals must be subject to appropriate appraisal in consultation with Worcestershire County Council and consistent with LTP3 policies and design standards. Full consideration must be made of the impact on the wider transport network, including that managed by the Highways Agency.”
“Replace existing junction with signalised junction to improve output of vehicles from Fox Lane onto B4091 (Rock Hill). TRO required to prevent parking adjacent to the southbound carriageway. Junction to be operated using MOVA control.”
“Further work to understand the impact of the proposed highways schemes such as the Whitford Road highway diversion model could be completed through the development and use of a traffic assignment model such as Saturn.”
“Of particular relevance to the present appeal, the IDP proposes that both of the Kidderminster Road and Fox Lane junctions should be converted from priority junctions to traffic signals.”
“78. The transport strategy behind the housing and other development proposals in the draft BDP is based on the Bromsgrove IDP. The IDP is intended as an overview of the infrastructure required to support the draft plan, and identifies specific items of infrastructure needed in relation to specific sites. The preamble also makes it clear that the IDP proposals have had regard to the County-wide Infrastructure Strategy of WCC. 79. In the case of the Fox Lane junction, the IDP envisages a signalised solution, which is said to be needed particularly to facilitate movements for vehicles exiting from Fox Lane itself. This work is identified as a requirement for the development of the present appeal site. The need for improvements at the Kidderminster Road junction is also identified. The diversion of Whitford Road through the appeal site is not identified as a requirement, nor is it referred to in any way at all. Nothing in the IDP suggests any intention to change the road’s function or to discourage its use by through traffic. 80. The IDP forms part of the evidence base supporting the draft BDP as its examination. As such, it was available for public comment and objection for a considerable time. Although the examination is continuing, the appeal site and the other major housing proposals have been dealt with. In so far as transport issues are concerned, these proposed housing developments have been considered on the basis of the strategy represented by the IDP. No further sessions are planned on any of these topics. The opportunity to comment on these matters has, therefore, now passed. 81. The appeal proposal is consistent with the BDP in land use terms, in that it proposes development of one of the allocated TES sites, for the uses stated in Policy BDP5A.6. But the proposed mitigation strategy, based on the diversion of Whitford Road, and the lack of provision for signalisation at Fox Lane, both designed to change the role of the Whitford Road-Fox Lane route, do not sit comfortably with the IDP. Indeed these measures seem to me to be, in effect, an attempt to promote a different strategy from that on which the BDP is based.”
“82. This in itself does not make the appellants’ mitigation proposals unacceptable. Local plans are expected to be flexible, and sometimes new ideas emerge which may be judge an improvement. But here, what is missing is any strategic overview as to how the present appeal scheme and its proposed mitigation might affect the other planned major developments, and thus the overall delivery of the BDP’s proposals. In particular, it is not clear what effect the appeal scheme would have on the Perryfields development, which is nearby and would potentially make use of much of the same road network. An assessment of the cumulative impact of the appeal scheme together with other draft allocations was included in the original TA, in May 2013, but this was prior to the change to incorporate the Whitford Road diversion. No similar assessment has been carried out since. Neither does it appear that any joint working or holistic thinking has occurred, as envisaged in the BDP text identified earlier. 83. The appellants contend that their proposals conform with what they refer to as the County Council’s new strategy and, not unreasonably, they point to WCC’s support for this aspect of the appeal proposals in numerous written comments on the application, and in the joint statement prepared for the inquiry. But there is no evidence that any such new strategy exists, other than as an idea. That does not necessarily make it a bad idea, but in order for it to supplant the IDP, it would need at the very least to be submitted for consideration as part of the BDP process, and also be subjected to some form of public consultation. Evidently, these steps have not been taken. The idea remains no more than that. There may or may not be something in it, but it has not been tested, and this inquiry is not the place to do so, because the potential effects go well beyond this appeal proposal. 84. Again, WCC’s view on these matters carries weight by virtue of their statutory role as Highway Authority. But I must consider the appeal in the light of the evidence before me, and in this respect the evidence in support of the appellants’ mitigation strategy is again lacking. 85. I conclude that the proposed mitigation strategy for the appeal proposals would conflict with the transport strategy for the emerging draft BDP, and would thus potentially prejudice the delivery of developments which are likely to be needed to fulfil the aims of that plan.
“From all of the above, I draw the initial conclusion that, unless the scheme would deliver mitigation which can be shown to be both adequate and effective, the proposed development would have significant adverse consequences, in terms of traffic congestion, ease of movement and safety. Together, these effects would in my view amount to a severe cumulative impact on the local transport network.”
“The evidence for the without-mitigation scenario is found in the appellants’ two TAs, dated May 2013 and September 2013. The first TA found significant problems with peak-hour capacity at the Kidderminster Road and Fox Lane junctions. Both of these junctions were found to be already overloaded, and the effect of the proposed development, without some form of mitigation, would be to make them significantly worse.”
“41. At Fox Lane, in the year 2020 baseline scenario (Table 8.12 of the May 2013 TA), the southbound queue length in the morning peak hour is predicted to be 39 vehicles. With the development added (Table 8.13), this would increase to 68, with queuing times of up to around 5 minutes. In the afternoon peak, the same queue would increase from 62 to 91 vehicles, waiting for nearly 8 minutes. The right-turning traffic from Rock Hill would also increase in the afternoons, from 18 to 34 vehicles. This analysis for Fox Lane is not repeated in the revised TA in September 2013, but the figures in the original version remain before the inquiry, and have not been superseded by any later evidence. The development’s effects at Fox Lane would be slightly less dramatic than at Kidderminster Road, but would still be substantial. 42. The appellants argue that these results overstate the effects, due to limitations in the ‘Picady’ modelling software and also in the BDTM, and in this regard I accept that traffic modelling is not an exact science. However, the TAs are the appellants’ own documents. And although a substantial amount of other evidence has been produced since, the vast majority of this is concerned with the effects of the proposed mitigation. Nothing has taken the place of the TAs in assessing the 2020 baseline or the without-migration scenario. I therefore cannot disregard the evidence in the TAs on these matters.”
“On any basis therefore, the available evidence suggests that, in the absence of mitigation, the proposed development would cause a substantial level of delay and inconvenience to peak hour movements through the Fox Lane and Kidderminster Road junctions. In general terms, I agree that delays to traffic do not necessarily amount to a severe impact; but that does not mean that they can never do so. In this case the evidence shows that travellers on the Whitford Road route already face substantial congestion. The additional queuing caused by the development would be over and above this, and would add to it significantly. It is clear from the submissions of local residents that such a lengthening of journeys via this route would be perceived by many as an adverse impact on their quality of life. To my mind, this is not a matter to dismiss lightly.”
“From all of the above, I draw the initial conclusion that, unless the scheme would deliver mitigation which can be shown to be both adequate and effective, the proposed development would have significant adverse consequences, in terms of traffic congestion, ease of movement and safety. Together, these effects would in my view amount to a severe cumulative impact on the local transport network.”
“Mr Hutchins presented an exercise using what he fairly described as a course ‘diversion model’, derived by work from Moskowitz. It is a simple diversion curve utilising time and distance to gauge driver propensity to reroute. It is not often used and stems from work in America in the 50s, those points are true. However, there is no evidence that it assumes the Californian freeway network – that is certainly not how the 1996 publication referred to by Mr Hutchins describes it. The actual results it throws up are a matter of a few percentage points away from the actual observed results.”
“111. The legal undertaking provides for a contribution of just over£296,000 towards off-site highways improvements. This is a substantial sum. However, the amount has not changed since before the time when the Whitford Road diversion was first introduced. The whole purpose of the diversion is to send more traffic through the town centre. This therefore must have the effect of increasing the development’s impact on that area. No clear explanation has been given as to why the same contribution is still appropriate. The County Council does not query the amount, and I give due weight to their view, but this is not conclusive. 112. The undertaking specifies that the contribution may only be applied towards three identified schemes. One of these is the A448/B4091 (Kidderminster Road/St John Street/Hanover Street) junction. The need for improvements at this junction is identified in the IDP, with an estimated cost of£1.12m . There is no dispute that these works are important to the development of the present appeal site, because the junction causes a significant bottleneck on the town centre route that would need to be used by traffic diverted from the Whitford Road. Without this improvement, the incentive to take the town centre route would be diminished. But the present appeal proposal would only provide, at most, about a quarter of the overall cost. As a percentage share, that may seem reasonable, but it leaves a question mark over how and when the remainder of the cost would be found. It is said that the balance is expected to come from the Perryfields development, but this is yet to be seen. There is therefore some uncertainty over the delivery of this important piece of off-site highway infrastructure, which is needed to enable the appeal scheme’s proposed mitigation strategy to work as planned. 113. The other two schemes specified in the undertaking are the A38 Worcester Road/Redditch Road junction, to the south of the town, and the Stoke Road junction on the A38, to the east of the town centre. Neither of these junctions are located on the route that traffic diverted from Whitford Road would be likely to use. Consequently, in terms of mitigating the proposed development’s impact, these particular highway schemes have little relevance. It is said that in practice it is unlikely that WCC would wish to use more than a small proportion of the proposed contribution on these schemes, because the A448/B4091 junction is likely to be the main priority. But there is no guarantee of this. Given the terms of the obligation, WCC would be within its rights to spend the entire contribution on the two A38 junctions. 114. I appreciate that, now that the undertaking has been entered into, the appellants have little control over how WCC chooses to spend this money. But the undertaking is unilateral. The appellants therefore did have control over what went into it, and it was for them to ensure that it was drafted so as to secure the mitigation that would be needed for their proposed scheme. As it is, the undertaking leaves open the possibility that the development could go ahead without any part of the highway contribution finding its way to the works that would be necessary to mitigate the impact on the town centre route. Given the way that the appeal proposals have been designed, with the specific aim of pushing additional traffic onto that route, over and above the traffic generated by the development itself, it seems to me essential that whatever funding is provided for highway improvements should be used in a way that would help to mitigate this impact, without the possibility of being diluted into other works. In this respect the submitted undertaking falls short of what is required.”
“52. In May 2015, the appellants produced their evidence for the appeal, which includes the WSP Diversion Analysis report. That report calculates the proportion of the through traffic that would divert to the town centre route, based on the ‘Moskowitz diversion curve formula’. On this basis it is suggested that the number of vehicles switching would include 43% of those with an origin or destination to the south-east of Bromsgrove, and 63% of those heading to or from the south west; these figures compare to 10% and 30% at present. But in the interests of robustness, the authors have then adjusted their assumptions downwards, to 30% and 50% respectively. Overall, this would mean about 80 existing trips being diverted away from Whitford Road and Fox Lane in the morning peak and 140 in the evening. On this basis, it is argued that the traffic generated by the new development would be balanced by the reduction in through traffic, resulting in a broadly neutral impact on the Fox Lane and Kidderminster Road junctions and the corridor as a whole. 53. The WSP report then goes on to consider the consequential effects on the town centre route, and on the Millfield area and Deansway. Based on the same forecast diversion rates, it is calculated that the increase in peak-hour traffic at two of the key town centre junctions would be 8% and 3%, and that little or no additional traffic would be generated through Millfield or Deansway. 54. The main focus of the objectors’ criticisms relates to the Moskowitz formula, and in particular whether this methodology is appropriate for the task. That question is a particularly important one, because the Whitford Road diversion is effectively the foundation for the whole of the mitigation strategy as now proposed. I do not doubt that the formula has a respectable pedigree, but it was evidently developed in the 1950s, for use by the California Highways Division. It was therefore clearly designed for use in conditions rather different from those of 21st-century Britain. Although the Council’s and WVV’s traffic witnesses were familiar with it in principle, neither had ever heard of it being used in a UK-based context, and there is no evidence that it has ever before now been applied in a situation similar to the present appeal. For these purposes therefore, it seems fair to say that the Moskowitz approach is unusual and untested. 55. As the appellants acknowledge, in comparison to more modern traffic modelling programmes, the Moskowitz formula is an unsophisticated and rather one-dimensional tool, designed to look at a single issue in isolation, rather than dealing with the transport network holistically. In particular, it lacks the ‘iterative’ ability of an assignment-type model such as ‘Saturn’. This seems to me a significant weakness, because in the present case the alternative route onto which the diverted traffic would have to be channelled is not a free-flowing Californian freeway, but part of an already-saturated urban town centre. Every diverted vehicle would add to the existing congestion on this alternative route, and would thus contribute to making that option less attractive. In Saturn this effect could be built-in, but the Moskowitz formula does not enable it to be taken into account. 56. In the circumstances, my view is that the appellants’ choice of methodology for such a crucial task was ill-judged. The method’s lack of iterative capability, and its lack of ability to respond to the particular circumstances of the location, means that the results must be regarded with a considerable amount of caution. Given that alternative traffic modelling tools are available which would have been more suitable and more widely accepted, the use of such an unorthodox approach inevitably leaves unanswered questions. I appreciate that Saturn modelling is expensive, but that does not mean that a proper assessment is unnecessary, especially for a large development such as this. I have no doubt that if the assessment had been carried out and submitted at the time when the diversion was first proposed, there would have been time for some of these issues to be explored and resolved. The fact that it was not produced until nearly two years later, simply adds to the objectors’ sense of unease, and I have some sympathy with that view. 57. Taking a pragmatic approach, it is possible that the shortcomings of the Moskowitz method may have been compensated for by the WSP report’s final adjustment, bringing the diversion rates down from the raw output figures of 43% and 63%, to the more conservative 30% and 50%. But the fact that this adjustment was perceived to be necessary seems to me an acknowledgement that the method itself is flawed. And the unscientific and arbitrary nature of the figures that have been inserted at that stage further undermines any conclusions that might be drawn from them. As the objectors rightly point out, introducing an unsupported assumption in this way begs the question as to what value can be attached to the study that preceded it. 58. Unfortunately, these misgivings about the assessment in the Diversion Analysis report do not stop at the effects on the Whitford Road corridor. The report’s conclusions relating to the town centre, Millfield and Deansway are all consequent to, and thus to some degree contingent upon, its earlier findings. My doubts as to the adequacy of the way the diversion effect has been assessed must therefore condition the way that these subsequent conclusions are viewed. In the case of Millfield and Deansway, the report’s treatment of these areas is fairly superficial, and it may well be that the same assertions could have been made by the appellants in any event. But the fact is that they were not, and the appellants chose to address these issues only after conducting their Moskowitz calculations. I am left with the unavoidable feeling that there is little in the May 2015 report on which I can rely.”
“Allied to this, there would need to be a planning condition. Such a condition would need to be drafted so as to allow the development to start before any Traffic Order was in place, because it is likely that without the new road being actually available, the Order could not be granted. But the condition would also need to prevent the development from proceeding beyond a given threshold until the closure of the old route had actually taken place. That requirement would be outside the developer’s control, and thus the condition would only be lawful where there was a reasonable prospect of being fulfilled. I have some doubts as to how the Courts would judge the lawfulness of such a condition here.”
“Prior to the occupation of the 200th dwelling, the existing alignment of Whitford Road, will be severed and an alternative vehicle (route) provided and made available for public passage in accordance with details which have been submitted to and approved in writing by the local planning authority.”
“In addition, it seems to me that in this situation it would also be wrong to ignore the potential relationship between congestion and safety. An increase in vehicles does not necessarily mean an increase in accidents. But additional queuing and delays have an obvious link to increased levels of driver stress and frustration. To my mind this is particularly pertinent to the case of the Fox Lane junction, given that this junction is proposed to remain uncontrolled. Although the junction does not have a bad safety record, that does not mean that it is free from danger. With the significant increase in queue length and waiting times at this point, it seems to me that the risk of accidents in the future would be likely to increase.”
“88. Dealing first with the adverse effects, the most obvious of these would be that, for existing and future users of the Whitford Road-Fox Lane route, journeys would become longer, slower, less fuel-efficient, more polluting and most costly. Although an extra 2 minutes travelling would not be likely to cause hardship, there would also be a cumulative cost to society. In this context I note that the diversion would to some degree affect residents of the new development itself, as well as extraneous traffic; and also that it would equally affect journeys at all times of day, even though the need for mitigation is only during peak hours. These effects on users could be lessened somewhat if the internal road were made shorter, or the obstacles more limited, but this would diminish the diversion strategy’s effectiveness. As the appellants acknowledge, causing inconvenience is essential to the diversion’s success. Any attempt to make it less so would therefore risk defeating its objectives. 89. Secondly, if the scheme succeeded in diverting traffic onto the town centre route, as intended, it must follow that it would add to the existing congestion in that area, and to the need for highway improvements and other mitigation measures there. The IDP contains proposals to improve some of the town centre junctions, and the S.106 undertaking provides for a contribution to those measures. But these were already proposed before the Whitford Road diversion, so would presumably be needed anyway. In that case, the present scheme would eat into any reserve capacity that might remain on the town centre route after the planned improvements. 90. Thirdly, the lengthening of journeys on Whitford Road would make it likely that some traffic would rat-run via Deansway. The journey through that area is said to take 90 seconds, and is relatively unobstructed. As such, it is shorter and potentially more inviting than that now envisaged through the appeal site. Deansway is a quiet residential street, not designed for through traffic, and any diversion of extraneous vehicles into this area would be highly undesirable. For the same reasons already discussed, this impact could not be addressed by shortening the route through the appeal site, because that would reduce the effectiveness of the whole diversionary strategy. 91. The S.106 undertaking provides a further sum of£50,000 for traffic calming in Deansway, and the appellants have put forward indicative plans showing the form that such a scheme might take. But these works would have their own adverse impacts for local residents, including loss of on-street parking and general inconvenience. They would also change the street’s character, and although the appellants maintain that the amount of money provided would be sufficient, it seems unlikely that it would allow for a high quality scheme in terms of its design and materials. If it were not for the proposed diversion, there would be no need for any alterations to Deansway at all; as the Council put it, the need for such works would amount to ‘mitigating against the effects of the other mitigation’, rather than against those of the development itself. 92. And fourthly, there would be the diversion’s effects on the proposed development itself. Through traffic that continued to use Whitford Road and Fox Lane would be routed through the new neighbourhood. If the appellants’ estimates are right, this might still be around 50-70% of the existing flows. I accept that it would not be impossible to design a scheme to accommodate this external traffic, and indeed other examples may be found. But nonetheless, it would not be ideal. In my view this would make it more difficult to achieve a high quality residential environment within the site, and would be likely to result in compromises which would not otherwise need to be made.”